Turkey's higher education system has experienced substantial growth in recent years, becoming one of the largest in Europe. This expansion, while potentially beneficial for increasing skilled individuals and regional development, has raised concerns about maintaining educational quality. The study focuses on teacher training programs, which have seen an extreme increase in both the number of programs and students. This growth has led to two major issues: (i) a rise in unemployed teachers due to a mismatch between the number of graduates and available positions, and (ii) concerns about the skill levels of newly graduated teachers, potentially due to the admission of lower-achieving students into education faculties. This study examines grade inflation within this context, investigating whether the rapid increase in teacher training programs has compromised academic standards and examining the factors affecting graduation GPAs. The research questions are: • (RQ1) Has the number of graduates with high honors (GPA ≥ 3.50) changed over the years? • (RQ2) Does grade inflation exist in teacher training programs? • (RQ3) Do student gender, admission scores, teaching field, program establishment year, or student-faculty ratios affect graduation GPAs?

The literature review explores the concept of grade inflation, defining it as the practice of awarding higher grades for equivalent achievement, thus reducing the informative value of grades. Grade inflation is discussed as an artificial inflation of grades regardless of academic effort, lowering the value of high grades and making it difficult to differentiate between students based on actual achievement. Existing research highlights various contributing factors, including student evaluations of courses, increasing career-orientation of students, higher tuition fees, and the less burdensome nature of giving high grades for instructors. The pressure to obtain more resources and the influence of student résumés on employer perceptions are also considered. While grade inflation has been widely studied in the US context, research on grade inflation in teacher training programs and specifically in Turkey is limited. This study aims to address this gap by analyzing the trend of grade inflation in Turkish teacher education programs and exploring its associated factors.

This longitudinal study employed a secondary research design, analyzing anonymized GPA data from the graduate databases of 32 teacher training institutions in Turkey between 2003 and 2022. The dataset encompassed 173,232 student-teachers. Certain teacher training programs were excluded due to various factors, including the use of aptitude tests for admission, limited program availability at public universities, and program redesigns. The remaining data covered eight teaching fields at basic education levels. Graduation GPAs, initially on a 100-point scale before 2006 and a 4-point scale afterward, were standardized using a semantic letter system (Table 1). To answer research questions 1 and 2, a real random effects estimator (REE) model was used, accounting for student and university-based differences across years. Dummy variables were included for student and university characteristics (gender, admission score percentile of the lowest-scoring student, program establishment year, and university status). Research question 3 was addressed using ANOVA and t-tests to analyze the influence of gender, admission score, teaching field, program establishment year, and student-faculty ratio on graduation GPAs.

The percentage of graduates with high honors (GPA ≥ 3.50) increased dramatically from 4.6% in 2003 to 36.5% in 2022 (Fig. 1). The REE model (Table 2) revealed that female students were more likely to graduate with high honors. A negative relationship was found between the admission score of the lowest-scoring student and the percentage of high-honor graduates, indicating that programs admitting lower-scoring students had higher percentages of high-honor graduates. A negative relationship was also observed between program establishment year and the percentage of high-honor graduates, with younger programs producing more high-honor graduates. University status (public vs. private) showed no significant effect. ANOVA analyses showed significant differences in graduation GPAs across teaching fields (lowest in science, highest in guidance and psychological counseling) and program establishment years (lowest in older programs, highest in younger programs). The student-faculty ratio also significantly influenced GPAs, with higher ratios leading to higher average GPAs. The highest grade inflation rates were observed in 2012 (following a significant increase in university quotas), and in 2021 and 2022 (during the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted face-to-face education).

The findings provide strong evidence of grade inflation in Turkish teacher education programs, even after controlling for various factors. The magnitude of the grade increase (18%, from 2.83 to 3.34 over 20 years) is substantial compared to other studies. The effect of gender on graduation GPAs is consistent with previous research indicating higher performance among female students, although the reasons for this remain unclear. The significant negative correlation between admission scores and the percentage of high-honor graduates suggests that capacity expansion lowered admission standards, contributing to grade inflation. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic aligns with existing literature suggesting a decline in motivation and academic rigor during periods of online learning. The substantial influence of the student-faculty ratio on grade inflation highlights the importance of maintaining optimal class sizes to ensure quality education.

This study demonstrates significant grade inflation in Turkish teacher training programs, driven primarily by capacity expansion and, to a lesser extent, the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the potential negative consequences of rapid expansion in higher education on academic standards and quality. Future research could explore the long-term effects of grade inflation on teacher effectiveness and student outcomes. Investigating interaction effects between the various factors influencing GPAs could also provide a more nuanced understanding of grade inflation.

The study's reliance on secondary data limited the ability to explore certain variables that might influence grade inflation. The selection of specific teaching fields for analysis could also affect the generalizability of the findings. Additionally, some factors contributing to grade inflation, such as teaching methodologies and evaluation practices, were not directly examined due to data limitations. Future studies should consider these limitations to refine the understanding of grade inflation in teacher education.