Grade inflation effects of capacity expansion in higher education: a longitudinal study in undergraduate teacher education programs from 2003 to 2022

This study examined the change in the rate of graduates with high honors (>3.50) in teacher training programs and the factors affecting grade inflation and graduation GPAs over a 20-year period. In the study, the weighted grade point average of 173,232 student-teachers who had graduated from 32 teacher training institutions between 2003 and 2022 was analyzed using the random effects estimator, ANOVA, t test, and ANCOVA. The findings suggest that their grade point averages increased from 2.83 to 3.34 within this period. The highest-grade averages were found in 2012, when the number of teacher training institutions was expanded; as well as in 2021-2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the gender of the students, their university admission scores, the teaching field, the establishment year of the program, and the ratio of students per faculty member were found to be important determinants of graduation GPAs. Based on our results, it can be argued that the rapid growth of teacher training programs in Türkiye has caused a decrease in quality, which has triggered an increase in grade averages. One of the most important findings supporting this idea is that programs with lower university admission scores have more students graduating with honors.