Global meat consumption has quadrupled in the last 50 years, leading to environmental concerns (soil depletion, water use, climate change), and ethical issues regarding animal welfare. Alternative meats, including plant-based and cultivated meats, offer potential solutions by providing sustainable, ethical, and healthier meat substitutes. This study, framed within sociotechnical transition theory, examines the potential impact of a shift towards alternative meats on employment across the meat value chain in Brazil, the US, and Europe. These regions were chosen due to their significant roles as exporters of animal products, making the impact of this transition on their workforces particularly relevant. The research focuses on understanding the social impacts of this transition, specifically the effects on employment, income, and required skills.

Existing literature explores the potential benefits of alternative meats (environmental sustainability, animal welfare, human health) but often overlooks unintended consequences such as job displacement. Some studies project significant job losses in conventional meat production, particularly in the US. The transition from conventional to alternative meat production involves radical innovation, affecting businesses, supply networks, and market infrastructure. Other research focuses on related transitions in food production, including the use of clean energy and bioeconomy principles, but less attention is given to the employment implications of the shift to alternative meats.

This study employed an expert sampling approach, surveying experts involved in conventional and alternative meat chains from Brazil, the US, and Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Netherlands). The sample comprised 136 validated responses from four groups of experts: industrials, scientists, activists, and rule-makers. Data was collected via a questionnaire with Likert scale questions and open-ended questions, covering the impact on jobs in conventional meat production, required qualifications for the transition, and the anticipated impact on different stages of the cultivated meat value chain (suppliers, growing factories, processing/distribution/marketing). Due to the non-parametric nature of the data, descriptive and comparison analyses (Kruskal-Wallis test, Dunn's post hoc test with Bonferroni correction) were used. The study received ethical approval from the Federal University of Paraná.

Experts largely disagreed that workers in animal production would easily transition to other jobs, citing insufficient qualifications, particularly for those in upstream stages (animal farms). Conversely, there was more agreement that workers in downstream stages (processing, marketing, distribution) possessed transferable skills. A strong majority agreed that both cultivated and plant-based meat would negatively impact the number of jobs in conventional meat production, though the impact was perceived as greater for cultivated meat. Estimates of job losses in animal farms by 2040 varied across regions, with higher projections for the US (39.2%) compared to Europe (30.7%) and Brazil (20.0%). However, there was considerable agreement (87.5%) that cultivated meat would create new jobs, particularly in the upstream stages (suppliers, growing factories), demanding expertise in engineering, biology, and food science. Downstream stages were also expected to generate new jobs, with a higher demand for management skills. Brazilian experts demonstrated greater optimism than European experts regarding job creation throughout the alternative meat value chain.

The findings highlight the potential job displacement in the conventional meat industry, especially impacting animal farmers. The study supports the idea that alternative meat production can create new, higher-skilled jobs, although requiring substantial investment in training and upskilling. The contrasting opinions across regions (Brazil showing more optimism than Europe) might reflect differences in national context, such as the engagement of large Brazilian meat companies in alternative meat production and cultural attitudes towards animal welfare. The need for interdisciplinary collaboration across biology, engineering, and food science is emphasized to drive the technological development in the sector. The greater demand for management skills in downstream stages suggests the importance of strategies focusing on consumer engagement and market adaptation.

This research demonstrates the potential for plant-based and cultivated meats to create new, high-skilled jobs while posing challenges to existing roles, particularly for animal farmers. Future research should focus on more detailed qualitative studies at each stage of the value chain, especially investigating the impact on animal farmers. Cross-national comparisons in diverse contexts are also needed to better understand the complex interplay between technological change, employment, and socio-economic factors. Policy initiatives should emphasize upskilling and retraining programs to facilitate a smooth transition for workers in the conventional meat sector, and ensure a just and equitable transition.

The reliance on expert opinions limits the generalizability of the findings. The study's predictions are based on current perceptions of a still-evolving industry, and the actual impact might vary depending on technological advancements, consumer adoption, and policy decisions. Furthermore, the sample size, while substantial, might not fully represent the diversity of views within each region. A more geographically diverse sampling strategy could enhance the study's robustness.