The expected impact of cultivated and plant-based meats on jobs: the views of experts from Brazil, the United States and Europe

Global meat consumption has risen sharply over the past 50 years, intensifying environmental pressures and ethical concerns. Alternative meats (plant-based and cultivated) are emerging as disruptive innovations that could reconfigure the sociotechnical meat production system, promising benefits for sustainability, animal welfare, human health, and food safety. However, plausible transition pathways include both gradual and accelerated shifts, with potential unintended consequences such as job losses and regional disparities. This study examines the potential impact of a transition toward alternative meats on employment along the conventional meat value chain, focusing on Brazil, the United States, and Europe. Guided by sociotechnical transition theory, the research explores experts’ expectations about how jobs may be affected at different value chain stages and across regions under varying transition scenarios.

The paper situates the transition to alternative proteins within sociotechnical transition theory, noting systemic changes to industries, supply networks, and institutions. Prior work highlights benefits of alternative meats, but also uncertainties about substitution versus complementarity, possible accelerated transitions, and uneven socio-economic impacts. Studies forecast significant job losses in conventional livestock sectors under rapid transition scenarios, particularly in the U.S., and emphasize pressure on upstream actors such as animal farmers and crop producers. Concurrently, literature identifies opportunities for rural producers in supplying inputs for plant-based and cultivated systems (e.g., ingredients, media components, cells/genetics), and potential improvements in working conditions relative to conventional slaughter and processing. The evolving role of large incumbents investing in alternative protein firms suggests transitions may be mediated through existing value chains, possibly mitigating some negative impacts. The review also underscores the centrality of synthetic biology, engineering, and interdisciplinary expertise in driving cultivated meat, as well as governance and policy needs to manage distributional effects and ensure equitable transitions.

Research design: The authors conducted an expert survey to explore expected employment impacts of transitioning from conventional to cultivated and plant-based meat systems across Brazil, the United States, and Europe (experts from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands). Expert sampling targeted four groups: industrials (entrepreneurs/managers in cultivated, plant-based, conventional meat, and related equipment/ingredient firms), scientists (academia/research), activists (NGOs/third sector), and rule makers (government/regulators). Expert elicitation is suited to emerging domains with limited data and to anticipate effects of technological change. Data collection: Potential respondents were identified via GFI company lists, Web of Science publications, NGOs and regulatory bodies, authors’ networks, and respondent referrals. In total, 879 experts were contacted; 217 responses were received, 161 fully completed, with 25 excluded for being outside the geographic scope, yielding 136 valid responses: Brazil 35 (25.7%), United States 45 (33.1%), Europe 56 (41.2%; BE 9, FR 12, DE 7, IT 10, PL 7, NL 11). Respondent demographics spanned research (46.1%), industry (36.8%), third sector (14.7%), and government (2.2%); functions included researchers (41.9%), directors/presidents (18.4%), managers (12.5%), specialists (5.1%), consultants (2.2%), others (19.9%). Self-assessed knowledge ranged from moderate to specialist; none reported no knowledge. Instrument: A questionnaire with five-point Likert and open-ended items informed by prior qualitative work and literature. It assessed: impacts on jobs in the conventional meat industry; workforce qualifications for transition (upstream vs downstream roles); expected job losses by 2040 under a scenario where 40% of meat remains conventional; and job creation plus skill requirements across three cultivated meat stages: (1) suppliers of systems, ingredients, and services; (2) growing factories (bioreactors/scaffolds); (3) processing/distribution/marketing. Items related to specific stages were optional to accommodate varying expertise. Ethics approval was obtained (UFPR protocol 38617320.0.0000.0102). Data analysis: Normality was rejected (Shapiro–Wilk), so non-parametric tests were used: Kruskal–Wallis for group comparisons with Dunn’s post hoc and Bonferroni correction. For the open-ended numeric percentage of expected job loss by 2040, ANOVA was reported. Descriptive statistics summarized Likert responses and frequencies of occupations/skills mentioned.

- Workforce mobility and qualifications: - 77.9% of experts disagreed/strongly disagreed that people in current animal production will easily switch to other jobs (Q01 overall mean 1.96; median 2). - 64.0% disagreed/strongly disagreed that upstream animal farm workers have sufficient qualifications to work in other sectors (Q02 overall mean 2.29). Significant difference between Brazil and Europe (p=0.008): Brazil more negative (mean 1.91) than Europe (2.52). - 47.1% agreed/strongly agreed that downstream conventional meat workers (processing/marketing/distribution) are sufficiently qualified to work in equivalent cultivated meat stages (Q03 overall mean 3.14; median 3). - Expected impact on conventional jobs: - Cultivated meat decreasing conventional jobs: 56.2% agreed/strongly agreed (Q04 overall mean 3.40; median 4). No significant regional differences reported. - Plant-based meat decreasing conventional jobs: 46.3% agreed/strongly agreed, 33.0% disagreed/strongly disagreed (Q05 overall mean 3.13; median 3). Significant difference Brazil vs United States (p=0.014): Brazilians more skeptical of negative impact (Brazil mean 2.66; US mean 3.44). - Expected reduction of animal farm employment by 2040 (open-ended, under scenario with 40% of market being conventional): - Brazil: mean 20.0% (N=25; median 20), Europe: mean 30.7% (N=40; median 28), United States: mean 39.19% (N=24; median 40). Significant difference between Brazil and US (p=0.001). 34.5% of experts did not answer this question. - Job creation potential and training needs across cultivated meat value chain stages: - Stage 1 (suppliers of systems/ingredients/services): 87.5% agreed/strongly agreed new jobs will be created (Q07 overall mean 4.43). 91.9% agreed/strongly agreed on need for training (Q08 overall mean 4.59). Brazil more optimistic on job creation and training needs than Europe (Q07 p=0.001; Q08 p<0.001). - Stage 2 (growing factories): 91.4% agreed/strongly agreed on new jobs (Q11 overall mean 4.43); 92.9% agreed/strongly agreed on training need (Q12 overall mean 4.56). Brazil more optimistic than Europe (Q11 p=0.019; Q12 p<0.001). - Stage 3 (processing/distribution/marketing): 83.9% agreed/strongly agreed on new jobs (Q15 overall mean 4.29; median 5). Brazil and United States more positive than Europe (p=0.008 and p=0.022, respectively). - Anticipated occupations and expertise: - Stage 1 careers: 58.2% in engineering (25.3%), biology/biotech (24.6%), nutrition/food science (8.2%); 11.0% laboratory/research; 17.1% management (marketing, logistics, quality/production control). Only Brazilian experts notably cited veterinary/animal science (3.4%). Required expertise concentrated in biology, engineering (including tissue/cell), production scaling, and food science (69.4% combined); management-related skills 19.0%. - Stage 2 careers: 64.4% technical (engineering, biology, food science), 11.1% lab/research, 8.89% management. Required expertise: biology/biotech/genetics (30.6%), food science (13.5%), tissue/cellular engineering (11.7%), production processes/scaling (9.0%), food safety/quality/regulatory (8.1%), specific technical R&D (5.4%). - Stage 3 careers: management functions most cited (52.2% across management categories), followed by food science (19.6%); engineering (9.8%) and biology (7.6%) less frequent. Required expertise: management/marketing/regulatory/supply chain/change management and related (38.6% + 17.1%), food science (17.1%), product safety/quality/certifications (11.4%). - Regional outlook: Brazilian experts were consistently more optimistic about job creation across stages and acknowledged greater training needs compared to Europeans; U.S. experts generally aligned more with Brazil than with Europe on downstream job creation potential.

The findings indicate that a transition toward cultivated and plant-based meats is expected to exert the greatest pressure on upstream conventional actors, particularly animal farmers, due to the disruptive shift in required skills and processes. Experts anticipate limited ease of workforce migration from animal production without substantial upskilling, reflecting the obsolescence of certain competencies as novel technologies mature. At the same time, across all three cultivated meat stages, experts foresee substantial creation of higher-skilled jobs, with upstream stages demanding interdisciplinary technical capabilities (biology, engineering, food science) and downstream stages emphasizing management, market interfacing, and quality systems. Regional differences suggest that Brazilian experts perceive greater job creation potential and training needs than European experts, possibly due to ongoing investments by large Brazilian meat companies and broader receptivity to alternative proteins. These expectations align with sociotechnical transition dynamics, wherein niche innovations integrate into regimes under favorable landscape pressures, reshaping value chains and labor markets. The results underscore the need for policies that support upskilling and inclusive pathways for farmers and rural workers, harnessing opportunities in inputs for plant-based and cultivated systems, cell and genetic material provision, and improved labor conditions. Without deliberate governance, benefits may concentrate in urban areas and high-income countries, potentially exacerbating inequalities. Multi-actor coordination among universities, NGOs, governments, and industry will be essential to steer the transition toward equitable employment outcomes.

Experts across Brazil, the United States, and Europe expect alternative meats to generate new, higher-skilled jobs, especially within cultivated meat supply, production, and downstream market stages. The anticipated employment impact differs along the value chain: upstream conventional roles, particularly animal farming, face the most pressure in rapid transitions, while downstream roles are less threatened and may see net job creation. Brazilian experts are more optimistic than European experts about job creation potential, with U.S. views generally closer to Brazil on downstream opportunities. The study highlights the prominence of technical roles (biology, engineering, food science) upstream and managerial roles downstream, informing education and training priorities. Policymakers should prioritize upskilling and inclusive transition measures to mitigate adverse impacts on farmers and rural workers, and to realize the social, environmental, and ethical benefits of the emerging post-animal bioeconomy. Further cross-national and stage-specific research is needed to refine employment projections and policy design.

The study relies on expert perceptions during an early and uncertain phase of the transition, particularly for cultivated meat. Key uncertainties include large-scale technical feasibility, cost trajectories, consumer acceptance, institutional change, and business model evolution, all of which affect employment outcomes. The relationship between innovation, demand elasticity, and jobs warrants further analysis. While the survey spans multiple value chain stages and regions, deeper qualitative studies at each stage—especially on impacts for animal farmers—are needed. The sample, though qualified, could be broadened for greater cross-country comparability, including low-income and predominantly rural contexts, to assess generalizability.