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The impact of external shocks on volatility persistence and market efficiency of the foreign exchange rate regime: evidence from Malawi

Economics

The impact of external shocks on volatility persistence and market efficiency of the foreign exchange rate regime: evidence from Malawi

J. P. Chunga and P. Yu

This research by Joseph Paul Chunga and Ping YU delves into the complex impacts of external shocks on Malawi's foreign exchange market, revealing significant volatility persistence in response to negative shocks and structural breaks influenced by global events. Dive into the intricate dynamics of this market efficiency study!

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between external shocks and the micro-transmission aspects of volatility persistence and market efficiency in Malawi's foreign exchange market. Using GARCH-type models on monthly data from June 2011 to October 2021, the study finds evidence of structural breaks in volatility and return series, coinciding with the Russia-Ukraine war. Negative shocks significantly increase volatility persistence, asymmetry, and threshold effects. While domestic factors also influence volatility, external influences remain significant, particularly for negative shocks, supporting leverage and volatility feedback effects. FRUH analysis reveals weak-form inefficiency in the foreign exchange market.
Publisher
Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
Published On
Nov 06, 2024
Authors
Joseph Paul Chunga, Ping YU
Tags
volatility persistence
foreign exchange market
external shocks
malawi
market efficiency
GARCH models
structural breaks
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