Safeguarding China's long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors

China, despite significant progress towards the UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), faces considerable uncertainties threatening its long-term sustainability. These uncertainties, termed 'disruptors' in this study, include pandemic disease, an aging and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. The convergence of these disruptors poses a risk of a "polycrisis", a simultaneous occurrence of multiple crises. Existing research often analyzes these disruptors in isolation, neglecting their interconnectedness and compound effects. This study addresses this knowledge gap by employing a comprehensive, forward-looking approach to assess the combined influence of these disruptors on China's ability to achieve its SDG targets by 2030 and 2050. The integrated nature of this analysis is crucial, as the interplay between these disruptors can create cascading effects that amplify negative impacts across multiple sectors. Understanding these complex interactions is paramount for informed policymaking and the development of effective resilience strategies. This research utilizes a system dynamics model to provide a robust quantitative assessment of the impact of these disruptors, accounting for uncertainty and nonlinear interactions. Furthermore, the study explores the potential of various policy interventions to mitigate the negative consequences of these disruptors and accelerate China's progress towards achieving the SDGs.

Existing literature highlights the individual impacts of various disruptors on sustainable development. Studies have examined the economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, shocks to energy, water, and food systems due to supply chain disruptions, and the implications of population aging and deglobalization. However, few studies have comprehensively explored the combined effects of these interacting disruptors, particularly their cascading effects on the attainment of the SDGs. Prior research on China's SDG progress has focused on retrospective analysis or assessment of a limited number of SDGs. This study uniquely addresses this gap by providing a forward-looking impact assessment of systemic disruptors on China's sustainability and exploring robust response strategies.

This study utilizes the iSDG-China model, a system dynamics model calibrated with historical data for China. The model comprises 30 interlinked modules across economic, social, and environmental pillars, capturing key feedback loops and nonlinear relationships. The SDG progress is quantified using a standard UN SDG score (0-100). The researchers projected 3001 states of the world: a baseline scenario (no disruptors), 500 scenarios for each individual disruptor, and 500 scenarios reflecting the compound effects of all five disruptors. These scenarios were generated using Monte Carlo simulations, drawing parameter values from predetermined ranges reflecting the uncertainty associated with each disruptor. To assess policy responses, 243 policy portfolios were created, ranging from a baseline (no response) to single-sector policies and integrated portfolios involving multiple sectors (education, health, energy, water, land). Each portfolio had varying levels of ambition (no response, moderate, ambitious). The study then combined the 3001 states of the world with the 243 policy portfolios, generating a total of 729,243 scenarios for analysis. The model's validation included structural validation (conformance to real-world knowledge) and behavioral validation (comparison with historical data using metrics like R-squared, MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE). Calibration was performed using data from official government sources and international databases.

The iSDG-China model projected that without disruptors and additional policies, China's overall SDG score would gradually improve. However, each disruptor significantly undermined SDG performance. Aging and shrinking population and climate change emerged as the most influential disruptors, with projected reductions in overall SDG score by 1.5 and 1.4 points by 2050, respectively. The compound effect of all disruptors resulted in even more significant declines, up to 2.1 points by 2030 and 7.0 points by 2050. The aging population particularly impacted economic development (SDG 8), human well-being (SDGs 3 and 4), and biodiversity (SDGs 14 and 15). Climate change negatively affected several SDGs, including water consumption (SDG 6), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). The analysis of various policy portfolios revealed the effectiveness of integrated approaches. Single-policy portfolios exhibited limited impact, while integrated portfolios targeting education, health, energy, water, and land showed significant improvements across multiple SDGs, even under the compound effects of disruptors. The 'Edu+, UHC+, Below 2°C, Bio+, and Water+' portfolio demonstrated the most effective strategy for long-term sustainability. While this portfolio improved social and environmental SDGs, it couldn't entirely mitigate the economic consequences of the disruptors, leading to potential challenges in debt sustainability (SDG 17).

The findings highlight the critical need for comprehensive, integrated policy interventions to mitigate the combined effects of multiple systemic disruptors on China's sustainable development. The disproportionate impact of aging and climate change emphasizes the urgency of addressing these issues through proactive policies. The study's results demonstrate that a piecemeal approach to policymaking is insufficient. Instead, it supports the adoption of an integrated approach where policies across different sectors work in synergy to maximize overall sustainability outcomes. The significant improvement achieved with the integrated policy portfolio highlights the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration and holistic planning. The model's projections, while robust, underscore the necessity of further research to refine the understanding of complex interactions and potential policy trade-offs. The study's emphasis on integrating long-term sustainability goals with immediate policy responses is crucial for building a resilient and sustainable future.

This research underscores the substantial challenges facing China's long-term sustainability and provides crucial insights for effective policymaking. The model's projections highlight the importance of integrated policy portfolios that address education, health, energy, water, and land use simultaneously. While the best-performing integrated policy portfolio can significantly improve sustainability, challenges remain, particularly in mitigating economic consequences and ensuring policy implementation across different government agencies. Future research should incorporate a wider range of policies and address the complexities of inter-agency coordination and resource allocation to further refine these findings and inform effective long-term sustainability strategies.

This study has several limitations. The iSDG model, while comprehensive, does not incorporate all aspects of China's domestic and global economic challenges, such as property market issues, local government debt, debt crises in developing countries, and global economic slowdowns. These factors could influence China's economic trajectory and cooperation, potentially amplifying the negative effects of deglobalization. Furthermore, the study focuses on broad sectoral policies rather than specific policy instruments. More detailed analysis integrating specific policies (e.g., carbon pricing, dietary changes, retirement policies) would provide more nuanced insights. The complexity of incorporating these policies into the iSDG model, however, extends beyond the current scope of the model.