Concerns about the future of urban development have arisen as the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. Epidemiological research suggests a complex relationship between urban form and virus transmission. While simplistic measures of density have shown a correlation between higher density and COVID-19 cases, more nuanced studies considering factors like self-sufficiency and land-use mixes present a more complex picture. Compact cities, characterized by higher density, public transit reliance, and smaller dwellings, offer various benefits, but the pandemic raises questions about public perception. In the US, where public support heavily influences local development policies, understanding the relationship between perceived COVID-19 transmission risk and support for compact development is crucial. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationship between perceived risk from COVID-19 transmission and self-reported support for compact development policies using data from a national online survey.

Public health has historically shaped city development, with epidemics like the bubonic plague and cholera leading to urban reforms emphasizing cleanliness and sanitation. Biomedical advances reduced infectious disease concerns until recent outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, etc.). The COVID-19 pandemic reignited the discussion on the link between urban form and public health. Initial research and media suggested urban density and public transit contributed to virus transmission. However, studies incorporating public health measures showed varied results, with some finding no significant impact of density after controlling for other factors. The pandemic also significantly reduced public transit ridership, and media coverage played a role in shaping public risk perception. This study builds upon existing research to analyze the impact of COVID-19 risk perception on support for compact development policies.

A national online survey was conducted in April 2022 using the SurveyMonkey Audience panel, targeting over 1100 US residents. The survey assessed respondents' support for three aspects of compact development: increased housing density, more multifamily homes, and greater access to public transit (each rated 1-5). Respondents also rated their COVID-19 transmission concern (1-5) and provided information on residence type, county of residence, sources of COVID-19 information (news/online media, family/friends), age, gender, education, and household income. County-level data on population density and cumulative COVID-19 cases were included. Zero-order correlational analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to analyze the relationships between variables. The SEM assessed the relationship between population density, COVID-19 caseload, residence type, information sources, demographics, concern for COVID-19 transmission, and support for compact development policies.

The response rate for the survey was high across various variables. Most respondents expressed significant support for higher density, followed by multifamily development and public transit access. Correlational analysis showed a significant positive relationship between support for the three compact development policies. Support for each policy negatively correlated with perceived concern for COVID-19 transmission. Support for higher density positively correlated with age, education, and household income, while negatively correlating with single-family home residence, population density, and COVID-19 information sources. SEM analysis indicated that population density and COVID-19 caseload positively related to perceived concern for COVID-19 transmission. News/online media use also positively correlated with concern, while household income negatively correlated with concern. Concerning support for compact development, concern for COVID-19 transmission and single-family residence type negatively related to support. COVID-19 caseload showed a positive relationship with support, while both information sources negatively correlated with support. Age and household income positively correlated with support.

The findings support the hypothesis that greater concern for COVID-19 transmission is associated with lower support for compact development. This aligns with observations during the pandemic, where restrictions fueled a fear of density and crowded places. The lack of a consistent relationship between density and support in SEM analysis, despite negative correlations in bivariate analysis, suggests a mediating role of COVID-19 transmission concern. The influence of media and social networks in shaping public perception is evident. The continued opposition to compact development from single-family home residents, despite lower concern for COVID-19 transmission, highlights their persistent influence on local development policies. Age showed a positive relationship with both COVID-19 concern and support for compact development, possibly due to older adults prioritizing amenities and social opportunities in compact environments. Gender and education showed less clear relationships. Higher household income correlated with lower COVID-19 concern and higher support for compact development.

This study demonstrates a negative relationship between COVID-19 transmission concern and support for compact development policies. Public perception, influenced by media and social networks, plays a crucial role. Addressing public health concerns within compact development is essential to maintain public support. Future research should investigate the long-term impact of the pandemic and consider diverse aspects of COVID-19 risk perception.

As a cross-sectional study, causal inferences are limited. Response bias and potential undercoverage in the online panel may affect generalizability. While efforts were made to balance the sample, further longitudinal research is needed for more robust conclusions.