Public risk perception of covid-19 transmission and support for compact development

In the last few decades, there has been a definitive shift in public support for compact development—characterized by high densities, more multifamily residential use, and effective public transit—owing to sustainability and lifestyle benefits. The COVID-19 pandemic raises questions about future public support for compact development given concerns about interpersonal interactions and transmission risk. This study analyzes a national online survey (n = 1100) conducted in the United States in April 2022 to assess the relationship between perceived concern for COVID-19 transmission and public support for compact development. Structural equation modeling (SEM) results indicate that individuals more concerned about COVID-19 transmission are less supportive of compact development policies. Residents of areas with higher density and more COVID-19 cases are likely to have greater concern for transmission, which may reduce support for compact development in these areas (mediated relationship). Reliance on news/online media, and on friends/family for COVID-19 information, and living in single-family homes, are associated with lower support for compact development. Older adults, despite higher concern, are more supportive of compact development. Higher-income households are less concerned about COVID-19 transmission and more supportive of compact development. Findings suggest perceived disease transmission threats may decrease public support for compact development; urban policymakers should address public health concerns in compact urban environments to sustain support.