The risk of indoor sports and culture events for the transmission of COVID-19

Nearly all mass gathering events worldwide were banned at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, as they were suspected of presenting a considerable risk for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 by droplets and aerosols during an experimental indoor mass gathering event under three different hygiene practices, and used the data in a simulation study to estimate the resulting burden of disease under conditions of controlled epidemics. Our results show that the mean number of measured direct contacts per visitor was nine persons and this can be reduced substantially by appropriate hygiene practices. A comparison of two versions of ventilation with different air exchange rates and different airflows found that the system which performed worst allowed a ten-fold increase in the number of individuals exposed to infectious aerosols. The overall burden of infections resulting from indoor mass gatherings depends largely on the quality of the ventilation system and the hygiene practices. Presuming an effective ventilation system, indoor mass gathering events with suitable hygiene practices have a very small, if any, effect on epidemic spread.

Stefan Moritz, Cornelia Gottschick, Johannes Horn, Mario Popp, Susan Langer, Bianca Klee, Oliver Purschke, Michael Gekle, Angelika Ihling, Frank D. L. Zimmermann, Rafael Mikolajczyk