Village self-governance is crucial for social governance innovation in rural China. While village elections have increased farmer political awareness, participation is declining due to urbanization, information barriers, and oligarchic politics. This study addresses the urgent need to understand and enhance villagers’ willingness to participate in grassroots governance. It focuses on the impact of political efficacy (PE), satisfaction with government performance (SGP), and social justice (SJ) on this willingness, exploring their interactive mechanisms. The study innovates by incorporating situational and structural factors (SGP), examining the influence mechanism of PE, and adopting a micro-perspective on the emotional impact of SJ on participation.

The literature highlights the impact of various factors—election procedures, religion, election corruption—on villagers’ willingness to participate. However, research on the mechanisms and boundary conditions is limited. This paper focuses on PE, a motivational factor impacting political action, and its relationship with political participation, noting that this relationship varies across contexts. The study incorporates SGP, as higher satisfaction fosters a belief in government protection of rights and interests, and SJ, which is closely linked to political participation and influences both PE and SGP. Fair treatment and transparent procedures contribute to high SGP and positive attitudes toward governance.

This study uses data from the 2019 Chinese Social Survey (CSS), a nationwide survey employing a multi-stage stratified sampling method. The analysis focuses on 7031 individuals with rural household registrations. The independent variable is political efficacy (PE), measured using three questions from the CSS questionnaire, reverse-coded to indicate higher efficacy with higher scores. The dependent variable is willingness to participate in grassroots governance, measured by two questions from the CSS questionnaire, reverse-coded to indicate higher willingness with higher scores. Moderating variables are SGP (satisfaction with government performance), measured using 13 areas, reverse-coded to indicate higher satisfaction with higher scores; and SJ (social justice), measured using 11 social domains, with higher scores indicating a stronger sense of social justice. Control variables include age, gender, education level, political outlook (CPC membership), and socioeconomic status. SPSS 26.0 was used for data analysis, including correlation regression analysis, and PROCESS v4.0 for testing moderating and higher-order moderating effects. A Harman single-factor test was conducted to rule out common method bias.

The study found that PE has a significant positive impact on villagers’ willingness to participate in grassroots governance (β = 0.078, t = 6.427, p < 0.001). SGP plays a positive moderating role in this relationship (β = 0.070, t = 5.301, p < 0.001). The interaction effect of PE and SGP on participation willingness is further moderated by SJ (β = 0.066, t = 4.423, p < 0.001). In the high SJ group, the interaction between PE and SGP significantly predicts participation (β = 0.083, F = 20.796, p < 0.001), while in the low SJ group, this interaction is insignificant (β = -0.004, F = 0.041, p = 0.840). Simple slope tests further reveal that in the low SJ group, PE significantly predicts participation among villagers with low SGP but not those with high SGP. Conversely, in the high SJ group, PE significantly impacts participation only among villagers with high SGP.

The findings confirm the significant role of PE in fostering grassroots participation, emphasizing the importance of cultivating villagers' confidence in their ability to influence the political process. SGP acts as a crucial moderator, highlighting the necessity of effective government performance in enhancing participation. The higher-order moderating effect of SJ reveals the conditional nature of SGP's influence, demonstrating that a strong sense of social justice is crucial for SGP to effectively enhance participation. These findings align with international evidence showing a greater propensity for orderly political engagement under conditions of satisfactory government performance. The study highlights the interplay between individual perceptions (PE) and external factors (SGP and SJ) in shaping political behavior.

This study makes several theoretical and practical contributions. Theoretically, it enhances the understanding of the relationship between PE and political participation, reveals the moderating role of SGP, and introduces SJ as a higher-order moderator. Practically, it underscores the need to improve PE, optimize government performance, and foster SJ to enhance grassroots participation. Future research could use longitudinal data to analyze causal relationships and explore broader contexts beyond rural China.

The study primarily relied on secondary cross-sectional data, limiting the depth of variable analysis and preventing a full exploration of causal relationships. Future research should incorporate longitudinal data and primary data collection for a more comprehensive analysis. The focus on rural China also limits the generalizability of the findings to other contexts.