Hesitant or determined? The influence of social and environmental factors on settlement decision-making of rural in-migrants: evidence from Dali, China

The phenomenon of rural in-migration is emerging as a significant trend in various global hotspots, playing a crucial role in reshaping these rural areas from social and spatial perspectives. The decision-making process for rural in-migrants regarding settlement is complex. Although previous studies have acknowledged that settlement intentions are influenced by social and environmental factors, such as the economy, natural environment, and public service facilities, many have relied on a stated-preference approach to measure migrants' settlement intentions. This method may overlook the inherent complexity and fluidity of the decision-making process. Drawing upon the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), this paper formulates questions aligned with the three stages of decision-making to examine the settlement intentions of rural in-migrants. Employing multiple linear regression analysis, the study assesses the impact of social and environmental factors on the settlement decisions of rural in-migrants in four villages surrounding Dali, a renowned rural destination in southwest China that attracts a diverse range of migrants. The findings highlight the pivotal role of public service facilities' quality in rural villages in the decision-making process, particularly among those who have already formulated settlement plans. Additionally, the research reveals that female in-migrants place a heightened emphasis on the quality of these facilities. Furthermore, a higher level of education correlates with a broader diversity of influencing factors. As migrants age, a wider range of considerations comes into play, with the natural environment emerging as a key factor for older in-migrants. This article emphasizes the equal importance of continuously improving public service facilities, strengthening economic vitality, and protecting rural natural landscapes to support the development of rural communities.

Yali Li, Ni Yan, Haifan Cheng, Jing Luo, Zhengxu Zhou