The COVID-19 pandemic presented a significant political challenge globally, requiring governments to implement extensive measures that often impacted constitutional rights. Political trust emerged as a crucial factor influencing public acceptance of these measures and compliance with restrictions. Existing research often focuses on single points in time, neglecting the dynamic changes in political trust during the crisis. This study addresses this gap by integrating data from multiple surveys to analyze changes in political trust in the UK throughout 2020, providing a more granular understanding of the relationship between political trust, governmental actions, and public response to the pandemic.

Political trust, encompassing confidence in government trustworthiness, credibility, fairness, and competence, is a multifaceted concept. While often linked to political partisanship, it extends beyond mere party affiliation. Historical trends reveal generally low levels of political trust in the UK, linked to scandals and media cynicism. Psychological mechanisms suggest that crises can temporarily increase political trust due to the need for control, shared fate, and the seeking of social support from authority figures. This phenomenon, often termed the "rally-round-the-flag" effect, has been observed previously but its longevity is debated. The existing literature confirms the link between political trust and compliance with government regulations, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the importance of understanding how trust evolves during crises.

The research integrated data from 18 UK survey organizations covering December 2019 to October 2020. The surveys measured three forms of political trust: general trust in the government, trust in national political leadership (the Prime Minister), and trust in the government's handling of the pandemic. Data were analyzed for both trust and distrust, addressing the distinct nature of distrust. Two key time points were considered: the introduction of the first lockdown in March 2020 and the Dominic Cummings scandal in May 2020. A feasibility analysis on a separate sample ensured comparability across surveys, and data were aggregated weekly, weighted by sample size. Polynomial regression models were used to assess the best-fitting trends in trust and distrust over time, considering both the entire year and the period following the Cummings scandal.

Analysis revealed low levels of general political trust following the 2019 General Election. A slight increase in trust followed the March 2020 lockdown, but the Dominic Cummings scandal in May led to a sharp rise in distrust. Trust in the government's handling of the pandemic showed an initial high, followed by a gradual decline. Trust in Boris Johnson also initially increased following the lockdown but decreased significantly afterward. The quartic polynomial model best fit the data for general political trust and trust in Boris Johnson, indicating curvilinear trends with three turning points. For distrust, a quartic model best fit the general political distrust data, and a quadratic model best fit the distrust in Boris Johnson data. For COVID-19 related trust a linear model provided the best fit indicating a steady decline from March to October 2020. Following the Cummings scandal, a linear decline in trust and a curvilinear increase in distrust were observed across all three measures.

The findings support the "rally-round-the-flag" effect, where trust initially increases during a crisis, but show that this effect is short-lived. The decline in trust appears to have been influenced by the ongoing pandemic, criticism from the opposition and media, and the Dominic Cummings scandal. The spillover effect of trust across different political objects was evident. The study highlights the importance of political leadership in maintaining public trust during prolonged crises. The short duration of increased trust suggests the need for strategies to sustain trust during future crises.

This study demonstrates the dynamic nature of political trust during a prolonged crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. While an initial surge in trust was observed, this was followed by a significant decline, highlighting the fragility of crisis-induced trust. The findings suggest a need for proactive strategies to maintain public confidence during crises and emphasize the importance of leadership integrity and effective communication. Future research could explore the long-term effects of fluctuating political trust and investigate methods for bolstering trust during future crises.

The study's use of multiple surveys with varying methodologies and measurement approaches might have introduced some variability. The focus on trust and distrust, without a nuanced analysis of neutral responses, represents a limitation. The analysis primarily focuses on national-level political trust, neglecting potential variations in trust at the local level. While the findings are relevant to the UK context, further research is needed to establish generalizability to other countries.