The impact of Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil prices: an EMC framework

This study investigates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil prices using an Event analysis method based on multiresolution causality testing (EMC) framework. The findings reveal a significant one-way causality between the war and crude oil prices. The war caused a substantial surge in WTI and Brent crude oil prices (52.33% and 56.33% respectively), accounting for a large portion of price fluctuations during the event window. The study also highlights the war's amplification of oil price volatility and its fundamental alteration of the long-term crude oil price trend. Recommendations include establishing an emergency management mechanism, diversifying oil and gas imports, advancing energy transformation, and utilizing financial instruments for risk hedging.

Qi Zhang, Yi Hu, Jianbin Jiao, Shouyang Wang