The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

This study investigates the cascading effects of grain trade shocks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security, focusing on wheat, barley, and maize trade networks from 1995 to 2021. Using a cascading failure network model, the researchers identify countries directly and indirectly dependent on Russian and Ukrainian grain exports and quantify the impact of trade disruptions. The results reveal that the impact on global grain trade has increased yearly, with wheat trade being most vulnerable but also most resilient. Lower middle-income countries in North Africa, Southeast Asia, and West Asia are particularly vulnerable due to their inability to fully exploit trade channels to compensate for reduced imports, a vulnerability amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study highlights the importance of import diversity, low import dependence, and regional characteristics in buffering countries from supply shocks and offers trade policy recommendations to mitigate national vulnerability and create a resilient food trade system.

Linqing Liu, Weiran Wang, Xiaofei Yan, Mengyun Shen, Haizhi Chen