Major infectious disease outbreaks significantly impact various sectors, including the film industry. The COVID-19 pandemic, while having a varied global impact, provided a unique case study in Taiwan, which experienced relatively low infection rates in 2020. This study examines the effects of the pandemic on Taiwan's film industry, a market heavily reliant on imported films (85% of box office revenue), and evaluates the influence of the government's two-stage relief package (Arts and Cultural Industry Relief 1.0 and 2.0) designed to mitigate the economic effects on the sector. The research question focuses on understanding the combined effect of the pandemic and government intervention on box office performance and film supply. The study's importance stems from the need to understand how such events and policies impact a film market heavily dependent on international productions and the potential lessons learned for other countries facing similar situations. By analyzing box office data and considering factors such as film characteristics, market size, and the timing of releases, this research aims to provide insights into the resilience and adaptability of the film industry during a major crisis. The study's timeframe encompasses the period from September 30, 2019, to September 27, 2020, to capture the pre- and post-pandemic periods in Taiwan.

Existing literature extensively explores factors influencing film box office success. Studies have identified various key drivers, including marketing and advertising strategies, film genre, the presence of significant actors and directors, production budget, running time, critical reviews, and user reviews (Bagella and Becchetti, 1999; Akdeniz and Talay, 2013; Hababou et al., 2016; Peng et al., 2019; Suvatta-nadilok and Foroudi, 2021; Yang et al., 2023; Gil-Ruiz et al., 2024). Research has also focused on the impact of government policies (Harris, 2018; Kawashima, 2016; McMahon, 2021), international collaboration (Chang, 2020), and cultural factors (Akdeniz and Talay, 2013; Hennig-Thurau et al., 2006; Jane, 2020; Jones, 2017) on box office performance. Several studies highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the entertainment industry globally, indicating devastating financial losses and significant disruptions (Nhamo et al., 2020; Selvalakshmi and Kabila, 2022; Alam and Samikon, 2021; Johnson, 2021; Yaqoub et al., 2023). This existing research forms the basis for this study's analysis of the Taiwanese film industry, offering a comparative framework for understanding the specific effects of the pandemic and government intervention in a unique market context.

This study employs both differential analysis and multiple regression analysis to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government relief packages on Taiwan's film industry. Data were collected from the Taiwan Film and Audiovisual Institute and Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, covering a 52-week period from September 30, 2019, to September 27, 2020, encompassing data on 5686 films. **Differential Analysis:** The sample was divided into pre- and post-COVID-19 outbreak periods to compare mean differences in key variables: weekly sales revenue, number of tickets sold, sales per ticket, tickets sold per screening, number of cinemas, total films shown, number of Taiwanese productions, and number of rerun films. Levene's test assessed equality of variances, and appropriate t-tests were conducted to determine the statistical significance of mean differences. **Multiple Regression Analysis:** A multiple regression model was developed to analyze the relationship between weekly box office performance (using weekly sales revenue and number of tickets sold as proxy variables) and several independent variables. These included: 1. **Weekly market size:** Total number of cinemas shown and total number of films shown. 2. **Film characteristics:** Number of weeks since opening, production by well-known studios (defined as a list of prominent international and local producers), and country of origin (US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan). 3. **Time/event effects:** Number of holidays in the week and student summer/winter vacation periods. 4. **COVID-19 effect:** A dummy variable representing the post-COVID-19 outbreak period. The model was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS), and variance inflation factor (VIF) was calculated to assess multicollinearity. The significance of each independent variable's impact on box office performance was determined through t-tests.

The differential analysis revealed a significant negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Taiwan's film industry. Weekly sales revenue and the number of tickets sold decreased significantly after the outbreak. However, contrary to expectations, the number of cinemas, total films shown, and number of weeks a film ran increased post-outbreak. The number of Taiwanese productions and their market share decreased, while the number and market share of rerun films substantially increased. This suggests that while film supply was maintained through government support, the overall quality and novelty of films declined. The multiple regression models showed that: 1. The number of cinemas shown had a strong positive effect on box office performance. 2. The number of weeks since a film's opening week had a significant negative impact, indicating that film novelty is crucial. 3. Films from well-known producers had a positive impact on box office revenue. 4. Films from the US, Japan, and Taiwan showed positive preferences in the Taiwanese market. South Korean films did not show a significant impact. 5. Student vacation periods positively influenced box office performance. 6. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative effect on box office revenue. The models demonstrated a high explanatory power (adjusted R² of 0.668 and 0.705 for the two models), suggesting that the chosen independent variables are good predictors of weekly box office performance.

The findings confirm the significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Taiwan's film industry, despite government relief efforts. While the relief packages successfully maintained film supply, the shift towards increased rerun films and decreased local productions highlights a potential trade-off between maintaining supply and ensuring the quality and novelty of films. The positive influence of major studios and certain countries indicates the continued dominance of international film in the Taiwanese market. The strong explanatory power of the multiple regression model confirms the significance of the factors analyzed. The study’s results provide valuable insights into the interaction between public health crises, government policy, and the film industry. Future research could extend this analysis to other countries and time periods to better understand the generalizability of these findings. Understanding the dynamics between supply and demand during crises is important for developing effective support policies.

This study provides empirical evidence of the significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Taiwan's film industry, even with government support. The findings highlight the importance of film novelty and the continued dominance of international films in the market. The multiple regression models offer a useful framework for evaluating box office performance, considering market size, film characteristics, and external events. Future research could explore the long-term effects of the pandemic, analyze the effectiveness of different relief measures, and investigate the interactions between various factors in greater depth.

This study focuses solely on the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan and does not consider the impact of later developments, such as vaccine rollouts. Furthermore, the study's scope is limited to Taiwan, limiting the generalizability of findings. The models did not consider interactions between variables, potentially leading to underestimation of some effects. Future research should expand geographically and temporally, incorporate more variables, and utilize more sophisticated statistical methods to fully capture the complexities of the relationship between major events, policy interventions and the film industry.