The impact of major infectious disease events and government relief packages on the film industry: evidence from Taiwan

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on Taiwan’s film industry and evaluates the effectiveness of government relief policies during the early pandemic period (2020), when Taiwan had low infection rates and cinemas largely remained open. Using multiple regression models, the paper analyzes explanatory factors for weekly box office (sales revenue and tickets sold) including running size (number of theaters), the total number of films, film age (weeks since opening), well-known producers, production countries, vacations, and a COVID-19 period indicator. The sample comprises 52 weeks from September 30, 2019, to September 27, 2020 (N=5686 film-week observations). Weekly box office receipts (tickets sold) declined by over 50% despite relief measures. While the count of locally produced films screened fell substantially, the number of theaters, films, and rerun films and their market shares rose, indicating stable supply but reduced novelty/quality. Regression results show: (1) a strong positive size effect (number of theaters) on box office; (2) box office declines with weeks since opening; (3) well-known producers and films from the US, Japan, and Taiwan have positive effects; (4) student vacations positively affect box office; and (5) the COVID-19 period has a significant negative effect.

Liza Lee, Ying-Sing Liu