India has a large adolescent population, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic, foundational literacy and numeracy skills were not universal, with substantial gender gaps. The pandemic caused widespread school closures for over 18 months, impacting 248 million students. The Indian government implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including a national lockdown, leading to disruptions in teaching and learning. While the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) showed increased enrollment rates, it also revealed significant reductions in standardized test scores and limited access to remote learning, particularly among students in government schools and those from disadvantaged backgrounds. Existing studies lacked adjustment for socioeconomic factors and comprehensive gender analysis. This study addresses these gaps by using NFHS-5 data to assess the pandemic’s impact on 15–17-year-old adolescents, utilizing quasi-experimental methods to control for socioeconomic differences and comparing post-COVID outcomes with pre-COVID counterparts.

Prior research highlighted pre-existing challenges in Indian adolescent literacy and numeracy, with significant gender disparities. Global studies documented pandemic-related learning loss, but varied in their accounting for socioeconomic factors and gender differences. The ASER reports provided valuable insights into the impact of school closures and access to remote learning in India, but lacked detailed socioeconomic controls. The existing literature pointed to a need for a nationally representative study that considers socioeconomic factors and gender-specific impacts of the pandemic on adolescent learning outcomes in India.

This study leveraged data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), a nationally representative survey conducted in India from June 2019 to April 2021. The study population comprised 15–17-year-old adolescents, categorized into pre-COVID (surveyed before March 25, 2020) and post-COVID (surveyed on or after March 25, 2020) groups. To address potential biases due to differences in socioeconomic characteristics between the groups, the researchers employed propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse propensity score weighted (IPW) regression. PSM matched post-COVID adolescents with observationally similar pre-COVID adolescents, and IPW regression weighted observations to balance covariates. Outcomes assessed included literacy (ability to read a complete sentence), years of schooling completed, and reasons for being out of school. Analyses were stratified by location (rural/urban), caste, religion, and wealth quintile.

The study found a 1.5–1.6% reduction in literacy rates among post-COVID girls compared to their pre-COVID counterparts. This effect varied significantly across socioeconomic subgroups. The literacy decline was notably higher (3.1–3.8%) among girls from the lowest wealth quintile. In contrast, no significant literacy loss was observed among girls in the highest wealth quintile. The negative impact on literacy was approximately twice as large in rural areas compared to urban areas. Socioeconomically disadvantaged caste groups, such as Other Backward Classes (OBCs), experienced the largest decline in literacy. Post-COVID girls also had 0.08–0.1 fewer years of schooling completed than their pre-COVID counterparts. Interestingly, there were no significant differences in out-of-school rates between the pre- and post-COVID groups of girls. For boys, the post-COVID group had a 2% lower out-of-school rate compared to pre-COVID boys, but no significant differences were found in literacy or years of schooling completed. Vulnerability markers (residence, caste, and poverty) amplified learning loss for girls but not for boys.

The findings suggest a significant gendered impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent literacy and schooling outcomes in India. The disproportionate effect on girls, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, highlights existing inequalities and vulnerabilities within the education system. The lack of similar effects on boys underscores the importance of considering gender-specific interventions. The persistence of learning losses even in mid-adolescence challenges the assumption that foundational skills are irreversible. The results are partially consistent with ASER 2022 findings, although differences in study periods and methodologies must be considered. The study's findings have implications for educational policy and planning, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to address the gendered impact of crises on learning.

This study demonstrates significant negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent girls' literacy and schooling in India, particularly among the most vulnerable populations. The lack of similar effects on boys highlights the need for gender-sensitive interventions. Future research should investigate longer-term impacts, explore the role of specific mitigating factors, and evaluate the effectiveness of targeted interventions.

The study acknowledges potential limitations, including unobserved differences between the pre- and post-COVID groups that could bias the findings. Measurement errors in self-reported schooling data are also possible. The smaller sample size for boys compared to girls may have limited the power to detect small changes in outcome indicators. Finally, the lack of data on time use or access to digital learning tools limits the ability to fully understand the pathways underlying the observed effects.