Expanding the global protected area network is critical for addressing biodiversity declines and the climate crisis. However, how climate change will affect ecosystem representation within the protected area network remains unclear. This study uses spatial climate analogs to examine potential climate-driven shifts in terrestrial ecoregions and biomes under a +2 °C warming scenario and associated implications for achieving 30% area-based protection targets. Results indicate that roughly half of the land area will experience climate conditions corresponding to different ecoregions, and nearly a quarter will experience climates from a different biome. The area required to achieve protection targets in most ecoregions exceeds the area that is intact, not protected, and projected to remain climatically stable. The study concludes that prioritization schemes will need to explicitly consider climate-driven changes in biodiversity patterns.

Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Drew S. Lyons, Clark Hollenberg, Carlos Carroll, Sean A. Parks, John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine Hegewisch, Josh Gage