Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change

Many terrestrial plant communities, especially forests, have been shown to lag in response to rapid climate change. Grassland communities may respond more quickly to novel climates, as they consist mostly of short-lived species, which are directly exposed to macroclimate change. Here we report the rapid response of grassland communities to climate change in the California Floristic Province. We estimated 349 vascular plant species' climatic niches from 829,337 occurrence records, compiled 15 long-term community composition datasets from 12 observational studies and 3 global change experiments, and analysed community compositional shifts in the climate niche space. We show that communities experienced significant shifts towards species associated with warmer and drier locations at rates of 0.0216 ± 0.00592 °C yr−1 (mean ± s.e.) and −3.04 ± 0.742 mm yr−1, and these changes occurred at a pace similar to that of climate warming and drying. These directional shifts were consistent across observations and experiments. Our findings contrast with the lagged responses observed in communities dominated by long-lived plants and suggest greater biodiversity changes than expected in the near future.

Kai Zhu, Yiluan Song, Josephine C. Lesage, Justin C. Luong, James W. Bartolome, Nona R. Chiariello, Joan Dudney, Christopher B. Field, Lauren M. Hallett, Michele Hammond, Susan P. Harrison, Grey F. Hayes, Richard J. Hobbs, Karen D. Holl, Peter Hopkinson, Loralee Larios, Michael E. Loik, Laura R. Prugh