Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. This study uses an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fish-MIP, forced by CMIP6 outputs, to assess future ocean ecosystem impacts from climate change. Compared to CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP, the new ensemble shows a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production under high emissions. Regional shifts in biomass changes highlight the urgent need to reduce uncertainty in projected responses of marine ecosystems to support adaptation planning.

Derek P. Tittensor, Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Gregory L. Britten, Matthias Büchner, William W. L. Cheung, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Tyler D. Eddy, Jason D. Everett, Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Eric D. Galbraith, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Jasmin G. John, Jason S. Link, Heike K. Lotze, Olivier Maury, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M. Petrik, Hubert du Pontavice, Jonathan Rault, Anthony J. Richardson, Lynne Shannon, Yunne-Jai Shin, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock, Julia L. Blanchard