Forecasting climate change risks for species and ecosystems is crucial for conservation. Previous risk assessments focused on climate exposure, but this overlooks nonlinear physiological responses and co-limitation. This study combines ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species with growth-form information to predict phytoclimates (climate's ability to support plant growth forms). Results show significant phytoclimatic changes (33-68% of global land surface by 2070 under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively), with novel phytoclimates emerging and existing ones disappearing. The geographic pattern of change differs from previous climate exposure studies, highlighting the need for revised conservation priorities and adaptation of biodiversity management practices.

Timo Conradi, Urs Eggli, Holger Kreft, Andreas H. Schweiger, Patrick Weigelt, Steven I. Higgins