Medicine and Health

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil

J. F. Oliveira, D. C. P. Jorge, et al.

This groundbreaking research by Juliane F. Oliveira and colleagues delves into the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, shedding light on the critical role of reducing transmission rates amidst ongoing challenges. Their findings highlight the urgency of addressing asymptomatic cases and the impact of healthcare policies during the pandemic.

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Playback language: English

Index

Abstract

This paper uses mathematical modeling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, considering asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impact of policies on transmission rates is examined, highlighting the challenges of maintaining healthcare infrastructure during the pandemic. Results show that lowering the transmission rate is crucial, but current efforts are insufficient to prevent systemic collapse. Non-detected cases significantly increase the basic reproduction number (R0). The study also discusses results in light of later epidemiological data.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Jan 12, 2021

Authors

Juliane F. Oliveira, Daniel C. P. Jorge, Rafael V. Veiga, Moreno S. Rodrigues, Matheus F. Torquato, Nivea B. da Silva, Rosemeire L. Fiaccone, Luciana L. Cardim, Felipe A. C. Pereira, Caio P. de Castro, Aureliano S. S. Paiva, Alan A. S. Amad, Ernesto A. B. F. Lima, Diego S. Souza, Suani T. R. Pinho, Pablo Ivan P. Ramos, Roberto F. S. Andrade

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