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Abstract
This paper develops a mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics in Ukraine, incorporating age-stratified parameters and contact matrices. The model accurately forecasts short-term case and death numbers and distributions. Simulations of various lockdown scenarios suggest that reducing work contacts is more effective than reducing school contacts or shielding the elderly in mitigating the disease burden.
Publisher
Scientific Reports
Published On
Nov 12, 2020
Authors
Yuliya N. Kyrychko, Konstantin B. Blyuss, Igor Brovchenko
Tags
COVID-19
mathematical model
Ukraine
disease dynamics
lockdown scenarios

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