Mathematics

Mathematical modelling of the dynamics and containment of COVID-19 in Ukraine

Y. N. Kyrychko, K. B. Blyuss, et al.

This paper presents a cutting-edge mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics in Ukraine, utilizing age-stratified parameters to accurately predict case and death rates. The research shows that minimizing work contacts proves more effective in combating the disease than reducing school interactions or focusing solely on the elderly. This compelling study was conducted by Yuliya N. Kyrychko, Konstantin B. Blyuss, and Igor Brovchenko.

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Abstract

This paper develops a mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics in Ukraine, incorporating age-stratified parameters and contact matrices. The model accurately forecasts short-term case and death numbers and distributions. Simulations of various lockdown scenarios suggest that reducing work contacts is more effective than reducing school contacts or shielding the elderly in mitigating the disease burden.

Publisher

Scientific Reports

Published On

Nov 12, 2020

Authors

Yuliya N. Kyrychko, Konstantin B. Blyuss, Igor Brovchenko

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