This paper uses mathematical modeling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, considering asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impact of policies on transmission rates is examined, highlighting the challenges of maintaining healthcare infrastructure during the pandemic. Results show that lowering the transmission rate is crucial, but current efforts are insufficient to prevent systemic collapse. Non-detected cases significantly increase the basic reproduction number (R0). The study also discusses results in light of later epidemiological data.

Juliane F. Oliveira, Daniel C. P. Jorge, Rafael V. Veiga, Moreno S. Rodrigues, Matheus F. Torquato, Nivea B. da Silva, Rosemeire L. Fiaccone, Luciana L. Cardim, Felipe A. C. Pereira, Caio P. de Castro, Aureliano S. S. Paiva, Alan A. S. Amad, Ernesto A. B. F. Lima, Diego S. Souza, Suani T. R. Pinho, Pablo Ivan P. Ramos, Roberto F. S. Andrade