Mapping the consumer foodshed of the Kampala city region shows the importance of urban agriculture

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces rapid urbanization coupled with high food insecurity, exacerbated by global events. Urban growth and socio-economic shifts transform food consumption and production patterns, impacting supply chains. Urban population growth increases food demand, while middle-to-high-income groups shift to protein-rich diets. Uncontrolled urbanization can lead to cropland loss, affecting regional food provision. The role of urban agriculture in urban food systems is debated. Some studies highlight its limited contribution to the foodshed and concerns about food quality and safety, while others emphasize its positive association with dietary diversity and food security, as well as its potential for poverty alleviation, emission reduction, and climate change adaptation. Existing research often lacks quantifiable data on food quality and quantity sourced in metropolitan areas. A comprehensive understanding of food systems, from farm to consumer, is crucial for designing strategies for more secure and sustainable urban food systems. Authorities often focus on agricultural production rather than food accessibility, which is a fundamental issue for food-insecure households. Consumer food accessibility is influenced by poverty, socio-economic segregation, proximity to food sources, price volatility, and land use changes. This study uses the 'foodshed' concept – the geographic area from which a population derives its food supply – to analyze Kampala's urban food system. While earlier studies advocated for localized food systems, a balanced approach incorporating local, regional, international, and global scales is increasingly seen as essential for resilient urban food systems. There's a lack of studies and methodologies for mapping and quantifying urban foodsheds in SSA. Previous research often focuses on supply-side perspectives, neglecting consumer behavior and the informal nature of African urban food systems. This study aims to trace the locations of food sources for different socio-economic groups, quantitatively map food provisioning sources, and delineate the foodshed of Kampala households.

The literature review discusses the challenges of rapid urbanization and food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the changing food consumption and production patterns. It reviews contrasting perspectives on the role of urban agriculture in urban food systems, acknowledging both its limitations and potential benefits. The review points to the need for more comprehensive data on food flows, accessibility, and the informal nature of African urban food systems, emphasizing the gap in studies and methodologies for mapping urban foodsheds in the region. It highlights the limitations of existing research that focuses mainly on supply-side perspectives and the need for a more consumer-centric approach.

The study employed a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques. Surveys were conducted with 541 households across 25 parishes in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) from March to April 2021 using a purposive sampling strategy to represent varying socioeconomic dynamics. Household surveys included sections on demographics, socio-economic characteristics, food accessibility, dietary diversity, and food security metrics. Data were cleaned and standardized, converting expenditures to Ugandan shillings (UGX) and calculating average spending per person per day. Mapping urban food sources involved tracing staple foods back to their origin, using household data on where they obtained their food and vendor data on where they sourced their products. The study focused on the five main staple food items consumed by each household. The data was aggregated and visualized using an OpenStreetMap shapefile and ArcGIS to delineate the foodshed based on the percentage of food sourced from different regions. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using the K-folds validation method (K=10) to assess the accuracy of the foodshed analysis. This involved calculating the root mean squared error (RMSE) for each fold to evaluate the model's predictive ability.

The study found that 50% of the food consumed in Kampala originates within 120 km, with 10% sourced from within the city itself. Urban agricultural activities contribute twice as much to the urban food provision as international imports. All socio-economic groups (SEGs) obtain most staple food from retailers (42%), market vendors (26%), and street vendors (20%). Supermarkets contribute minimally. 7.4% of staple food is home-grown, with higher-income households producing a significantly larger portion (15.7%) due to greater access to farmland. High-income established urban dwellers have a more localized foodshed due to their involvement in urban agriculture, while low-income newcomers rely heavily on retailers sourcing from rural areas. Food vendors exhibit a wider variety in foodshed distribution, with mobile vendors having the most localized sourcing compared to market and fixed street vendors. Retailers primarily sell cereals, many of which are imported. The study identified three factors influencing the future foodshed: urban sprawl, climate change, and dietary shifts toward animal protein. These factors, along with the existing inequalities in food security and dietary diversity across different SEG's, highlight the vulnerability of the food system to both economic and ecological shocks.

The findings highlight the importance of urban agriculture and local food sources in Kampala's food system, particularly for higher-income households. The study shows a substantial reliance on regional food sources, making the city vulnerable to disruptions in rural production and climate change impacts. The study reinforces the need for integrated urban planning policies that consider the entire food system, including urban agriculture and informal supply chains. The unequal access to food resources among different SEG's underscores the need for targeted interventions to ensure food security and equity.

The study provides a quantitative and visual representation of Kampala's foodshed, offering valuable data for land use planning and policy decisions. The findings highlight the importance of urban agriculture, regional food sources, and the vulnerability of the system to urbanization, climate change, and dietary shifts. Future research should focus on assessing the nutritional quality of locally grown food, the impact of climate change on food production in key regions, and the development of policies that support sustainable urban food systems and address food security and equity.

The study acknowledges that the conclusions may not fully represent all households in Kampala due to the sampling strategy. The reliance on household recall for food origins might introduce some inaccuracies. The limited sample size for supermarkets and wholesalers limits detailed analysis of their contribution to the foodshed. Additional research is needed to assess the redistribution of food from Kampala to peri-urban or rural areas.