Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms in the Sahara affect solar power generation potential globally

Globally, solar projects are being rapidly built or planned, particularly in high solar potential regions with high energy demand. However, their energy generation potential is highly related to the weather condition. Here we use state-of-the-art Earth system model simulations to investigate how large photovoltaic solar farms in the Sahara Desert could impact the global cloud cover and solar generation potential through disturbed atmospheric teleconnections. The results indicate negative impacts on solar potential in North Africa (locally), Middle East, Southern Europe, India, Eastern China, Japan, Eastern Australia, and Southwestern US, and positive impacts in Central and South America, the Caribbean, Central & Eastern US, Scandinavia and South Africa, reaching a magnitude of ±5% in remote regions seasonally. Diagnostics suggest that large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are responsible for the global impacts. International cooperation is essential to mitigate the potential risks of future large-scale solar projects in drylands, which could impact energy production.

Jingchao Long, Zhengyao Lu, Paul A. Miller, Julia Pongratz, Dabo Guan, Benjamin Smith, Zhiwei Zhu, Jianjun Xu, Qiong Zhang