Earth Sciences

Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century

D. Olonscheck, A. P. Schurer, et al.

This study by Dirk Olonscheck, Andrew P. Schurer, Lucie Lücke, and Gabriele C. Hegerl explores how human-induced climate change is reshaping temperature variability across the globe. By the end of the 21st century, increased variability is expected over tropical land while high latitudes may experience a decrease. These findings underline the critical need for urgent mitigation efforts to avert severe global impacts.

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Abstract

This study investigates the impact of human-caused climate change on year-to-year temperature variability. Using climate model large ensembles, the researchers project a significant emergence of regional changes in temperature variability by the end of the 21st century under a strong global warming scenario. The findings reveal a contrasting pattern: increased variability over tropical land and decreased variability in high latitudes. This pattern aligns with observed changes and paleoclimate reconstructions, highlighting the urgent need for mitigation efforts to avoid unprecedented changes in temperature variability.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Dec 13, 2021

Authors

Dirk Olonscheck, Andrew P. Schurer, Lucie Lücke, Gabriele C. Hegerl

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