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Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century

Environmental Studies and Forestry

Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century

M. Messmer, S. Eckert, et al.

This study reveals alarming shifts in grassland species distribution across East Africa due to climate change, particularly threatening pastoralism and wildlife in the Turkana region. Conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Bern and ETH Zurich, the findings underscore the urgent need for environmental policies to address these challenges.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study models changes in the distribution of key grassland species in East Africa under climate change using a combination of global and regional climate models and a machine learning-based species distribution model. The results show a reduction in the co-occurrence of analyzed grass species under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century, particularly in the Turkana region, suggesting potentially negative impacts on pastoralism and wildlife.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Oct 17, 2024
Authors
Martina Messmer, Sandra Eckert, Amor Torre-Marin Rando, Mark Snethlage, Santos J. González-Rojí, Kaspar Hurni, Urs Beyerle, Andreas Hemp, Staline Kibet, Thomas F. Stocker
Tags
grassland species
climate change
East Africa
species distribution model
pastoralism
wildlife
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