Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa

Africa produces around 60% of the rice it consumes, relying heavily on imports for the remainder. Over the past decade, rice area expanded by nearly 40% while average yields stagnated. Using a process-based crop simulation modeling approach combined with local weather, soil, and management datasets, the study evaluates the potential to increase rice production on existing cropland in Africa and assesses cropland expansion and rice imports by 2050 under different yield intensification scenarios. Results indicate that Africa can avoid further increases in rice imports—and even reduce them—through a combination of cropland expansion following historical trends together with closure of at least half of the current exploitable yield gap. Without substantial yield increases, meeting future rice demand will require larger imports and/or more land conversion than at present.

Shen Yuan, Kazuki Saito, Pepijn A. J. van Oort, Martin K. van Ittersum, Shaobing Peng, Patricio Grassini