This study presents an integrated framework to assess the impacts of socio-economic development, gradual climate change, and climate anomalies on rice production and consumption in Africa. The framework accounts for Africa's reliance on imported rice. Findings indicate that socio-economic development is the primary driver of rice availability, while climate change has minor long-term effects and is not predicted to worsen supply shocks. Rainfed regions are sensitive to local climate anomalies, whereas trade impacts stability in import-dependent regions. Facilitating agricultural development and reducing trade barriers are crucial for addressing future rice availability and stability challenges.

Koen De Vos, Charlotte Janssens, Liesbet Jacobs, Benjamin Campforts, Esther Boere, Marta Kozicka, Petr Havlík, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovič, Miet Maertens, Gerard Govers