Global warming is influencing precipitation patterns, leading to more intense precipitation in many areas. While the 'wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier' trend is observed in mean precipitation, the behavior of precipitation extremes is more complex due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic factors affecting atmospheric moisture. This study uses a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model, employing data from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, to analyze precipitation in the present (2006-2025) and future (2081-2100) climates. The results indicate that vertical advection of moisture is the dominant factor in same-day precipitation, while the thermodynamic process contributes available moisture over several days. In a warming climate, dynamically-induced precipitation more completely depletes vertically-integrated moisture, and its impact exhibits a wider distribution. The dynamic process is primarily responsible for increased extreme heavy precipitation in a warmer climate, across all latitudes.

Tackseung Jun, David Rind