This study investigates the projected increase in extreme salt intrusion events in European estuaries due to climate change. Using the Community Earth System Model 2 large ensemble simulation (CESM-LE2) under a high CO2 emission scenario (SSP 3-7.0), the researchers project a 10-60% reduction in summer river discharge in 17 out of 22 major European river basins by the end of the 21st century. This decrease leads to a 10-30% increase in salt intrusion lengths in 9 representative estuaries and a more than five-fold increase in the frequency of extreme salt intrusion events.

Jiyong Lee, Bouke Biemond, Huib de Swart, Henk A. Dijkstra