This study investigates the contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus (WNV) in Europe. Ecological niche models were trained to predict WNV circulation risk, comparing factual simulations with a counterfactual scenario lacking long-term climate trends. Results show a significant increase in ecologically suitable areas for WNV circulation under factual climate conditions, highlighting climate change as a critical driver, alongside human influences, in the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Diana Erazo, Luke Grant, Guillaume Ghisbain, Giovanni Marini, Felipe J. Colón-González, William Wint, Annapaola Rizzoli, Wim Van Bortel, Chantal B. F. Vogels, Nathan D. Grubaugh, Matthias Mengel, Katja Frieler, Wim Thiery, Simon Dellicour