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Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

Medicine and Health

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

D. Erazo, L. Grant, et al.

This groundbreaking research explores the impact of climate change on the spread of West Nile virus in Europe, revealing how ecological suitable areas for the virus are significantly increasing. Conducted by a team of experts, this study highlights the urgent need to understand climate influences on public health risks.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study investigates the contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus (WNV) in Europe. Ecological niche models were trained to predict WNV circulation risk, comparing factual simulations with a counterfactual scenario lacking long-term climate trends. Results show a significant increase in ecologically suitable areas for WNV circulation under factual climate conditions, highlighting climate change as a critical driver, alongside human influences, in the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Feb 08, 2024
Authors
Diana Erazo, Luke Grant, Guillaume Ghisbain, Giovanni Marini, Felipe J. Colón-González, William Wint, Annapaola Rizzoli, Wim Van Bortel, Chantal B. F. Vogels, Nathan D. Grubaugh, Matthias Mengel, Katja Frieler, Wim Thiery, Simon Dellicour
Tags
West Nile virus
climate change
Europe
ecological niche models
public health
circulation risk

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