Introduction
Human activities significantly impact the global ocean, with the 'blue acceleration' leading to unprecedented challenges. These include declining marine biodiversity, depleted fish stocks, and unequal access to marine resources. Expanding ocean geo-engineering, commercial exploitation of marine genetic resources, and deep-sea mining further exacerbate these issues, particularly in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ) where protection is lacking. Climate change amplifies these challenges due to the interconnectedness of ecological, socio-political, and economic spheres. The ocean's underrepresentation in sustainable development discourse, especially the high seas due to geographical distance, necessitates a transformation in ABNJ governance and understanding. Imagining aspirational futures can catalyze social-ecological transformations by inspiring new ways of being, addressing social dimensions like worldviews and values. Envisioning diverse futures fosters openness to change and enhances response capacity. Engaging with possibilities promotes empowerment and challenges unsustainable practices. Collective imagining, through imaginaries (shared visions of the future), shapes the future by defining goals and influencing social norms and relationships. Imaginaries are interwoven with scientific knowledge and technology, reflecting social practices, values, and power structures. This study combines computational text analysis with creative approaches to ground imaginative visions in scientific data while encouraging exploration of values and possibilities, bridging the 'imagination gap' and creating relevant and inspiring future visions for the high seas.
Literature Review
The paper draws on existing literature highlighting the challenges of the blue acceleration, the need for transformative change in high seas governance, and the potential of imaginative futures for inspiring such change. It references studies on the impacts of fisheries, marine genetic resources, deep-sea mining, and climate change on ocean ecosystems and resource distribution. The authors review the concept of imaginaries and their role in shaping social norms and relationships with nature, emphasizing the need for plural perspectives and the integration of scientific evidence into future visions. They also discuss the use of creative approaches, particularly science fiction, for envisioning transformed futures and bridging the 'imagination gap'.
Methodology
The study employed a two-phased methodology. First, computational text analysis, specifically topic modeling using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), was applied to 8580 scientific articles from Scopus focusing on high seas issues and future changes. This identified 25 topics, representing prevalent themes in the literature, visualized using LDAvis to show topic relationships and keywords. Second, a structured futuring approach guided the creation of four science fiction stories based on 16 selected topics. This involved sequential scenario-building exercises: summarizing keywords into topic labels, grouping topics into clusters, using future wheels and cross-impact matrices to explore topic interplay, mapping outcomes onto a three-horizons framework to create timelines, and using the cultural iceberg model to flesh out socio-cultural details. The stories were written by the lead author and accompanied by visual artwork. Eight semi-structured interviews with high seas experts followed, exploring the stories' connection to current realities, their potential for fostering transformative change, and suggestions for application. The interviews were transcribed and thematically analyzed.
Key Findings
Topic modeling revealed diverse themes in the scientific literature on high seas futures, ranging from specific technological advancements to more abstract concepts. The four science fiction stories, rooted in these topics, presented radically different high seas futures.
* **The Ocean Uprising:** depicts an activist-led coup followed by corporate control and sustainable management of the seabed.
* **Deep Connections:** portrays a post-catastrophe society thriving in the deep sea, sustainably utilizing resources.
* **Kairei City:** envisions a high seas nation-state prioritizing inclusivity and recognizing the ocean's rights.
* **Myopia:** shows a highly monitored ocean where technology-mediated transparency leads to unexpected encounters with illegal activities. Expert interviews confirmed the relevance of the stories to current scientific discourse and popular culture. Interviewees highlighted the stories’ power to broaden horizons, evoke emotional responses, foster empathy, and inspire diverse audiences. Specific story elements were directly linked to current scientific evidence or ongoing societal debates. The discussions revealed the potential of story-based visions as powerful communication tools for science communication, education, and policy-making.
Discussion
The findings demonstrate a strong connection between the radically futuristic elements of the science fiction stories and current realities, supporting the argument that future visions should integrate present developments for audience relatability. While rooted in the present, the stories highlight the uncertainty of the future and the vast option space for action. The expert interviews confirmed the effectiveness of the approach in opening minds, fostering empathy, and inspiring new ideas. The stories' potential as communication tools for diverse audiences, bridging the gap between academia and the wider public, is significant. The methodology offers a valuable pathway for integrating scientific evidence and imaginative capacity to envision sustainable and just high seas futures.
Conclusion
This study successfully combined computational text analysis, scenario building, and science fiction storytelling to create scientifically grounded yet radically different future visions for the high seas. The resulting stories, analyzed through expert interviews, highlight the potential of such creative approaches for opening transformative spaces to rethink human-ocean relationships. Further research should explore participatory methods to incorporate diverse perspectives and assess the impact of story-based visions on fostering sustainable high seas governance. Expanding the scope of scientific literature to include languages other than English is crucial for future studies.
Limitations
The selection of interview participants, being experts already familiar with creative futuring methods, might have influenced their responses. Future research should involve a broader audience to ensure wider applicability. Also, the use of English-language scientific literature may introduce bias. Further, the study focuses on a specific set of future scenarios; other possibilities remain unexplored.
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