Has excess epidemic prevention changed Chinese students' willingness to study abroad: three rounds of the same volume survey based on the new "push-pull" theory

The willingness of Chinese students to study abroad significantly impacts the global higher education landscape. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with China's strict epidemic prevention measures, caused a sharp decline in outbound Chinese students. Unlike other nations, China implemented extensive and prolonged restrictions, including city lockdowns and online learning, potentially altering students' perceptions of global higher education and increasing anxieties about studying abroad. While some argue the pandemic's impact is temporary, others believe it fundamentally shifted student mobility. This research aims to dynamically examine the changes in Chinese students' willingness to study abroad at different stages of the pandemic, utilizing a refined push-pull theoretical model that incorporates pandemic-related factors. This study seeks to analyze the extent to which COVID-19 altered students' willingness to study abroad across three phases of the pandemic and investigate the emergence of a new push-pull framework for global student mobility.

Existing literature primarily uses the push-pull theory to explain international student mobility, focusing on the interplay of push (factors driving students away from their home country) and pull (factors attracting students to a destination country) factors. Studies have identified various push factors for Chinese students, including limited higher education opportunities and the depreciating value of domestic degrees. Pull factors include high-quality higher education, better career prospects, and immigration possibilities. However, COVID-19 introduced new complexities, affecting the weight of existing factors and adding new ones. While some research acknowledges the pandemic's negative impact on international student mobility, few studies have dynamically analyzed its effects across different stages of the pandemic, and there is a lack of research updating the push-pull theoretical model to incorporate COVID-19.

This study employed a three-round survey across 2020, 2021, and 2022, targeting undergraduate, master's, doctoral, and postdoctoral students from over 270 universities in mainland China. Snowball sampling combined with offline and online questionnaires yielded 13,191 initial responses. After rigorous data cleaning, 12,248 valid questionnaires were analyzed. A stratified sampling method was used, selecting universities from different regions of China. The questionnaire encompassed push and pull factors at both the domestic and international levels, including academic, economic, cultural, and social aspects. A six-point Likert scale measured students' agreement with statements related to these factors. The reliability and validity of the scales were assessed using Cronbach's alpha and KMO tests. The study also explored students' choices in three scenarios: admission to different tiers of overseas universities, admission to different tiers of Chinese universities, and their willingness to return to China after studying abroad. Logit regression analyses were used to examine the relationships between the push-pull factors and students' willingness to study abroad, both before and after the pandemic.

The findings reveal a significant decrease in Chinese students' willingness to study abroad following the outbreak of COVID-19, with a 40.14% reduction in those willing to pursue overseas studies. This decline is attributed to various factors, such as concerns about the overseas epidemic (86.93%), online courses impacting learning quality (69.44%), visa and travel restrictions (67.98%), lack of family support (66.08%), and fear of anti-Asian sentiment (62.88%). Regression analyses demonstrate that before the pandemic, study abroad pull and domestic push factors positively correlated with willingness to study abroad, while study abroad push and domestic pull factors negatively correlated with willingness. After COVID-19, several key changes emerged: 1) The positive relationship between study abroad pull and willingness weakened. 2) The negative relationship between study abroad push and willingness strengthened, with concerns about the overseas epidemic becoming a prominent new push factor. 3) The negative impact of domestic pull on willingness strengthened, with the recognition of China's success in pandemic prevention becoming a new significant domestic pull factor. 4) The impact of various control variables also changed significantly. For instance, the influence of students' overseas experiences and family support increased. Analysis of students' choices in admission scenarios showed a decline in the attractiveness of overseas universities, especially those outside the top 100 globally. The attractiveness of top-tier domestic universities increased significantly. Students' preferred study destinations shifted from traditional locations like the US, UK, and Australia toward countries in Asia, particularly those perceived as having more stable pandemic situations. The study also found a strong desire among students to return to China after graduation, regardless of economic or employment conditions overseas.

The study's findings highlight the significant impact of COVID-19 on Chinese students' study abroad decisions, going beyond the simple disruption of travel and learning. The pandemic acted as a catalyst, reshaping the push-pull dynamics, intensifying existing anxieties and introducing new factors. The evolving attitudes towards the pandemic within China also played a crucial role. Initially, stringent government policies and public health messages deterred students. However, as pandemic fatigue increased, willingness to study abroad rebounded. This suggests the interplay of objective factors (pandemic severity, travel restrictions) and subjective perceptions (risk assessment, national pride). The shift in destination preferences reflects not only pandemic concerns but also geopolitical considerations, underscoring the intricate relationship between political climates and student mobility.

This study contributes to the understanding of global student mobility by dynamically analyzing the impacts of COVID-19 on Chinese students' study abroad decisions. It demonstrates the significant role of the pandemic in altering the push-pull framework, adding new factors and reshaping existing ones. The findings highlight the importance of considering both objective and subjective elements when forecasting future trends in international student mobility. Future research could explore the long-term implications of the pandemic on student choices and the adaptability of higher education institutions to future disruptions.

This study relies on cross-sectional survey data, limiting the ability to definitively establish causality. While the questionnaire employed robust scales, the self-reported nature of the data might be subject to biases. Future studies could benefit from longitudinal designs and mixed methods approaches, incorporating qualitative data to enrich the understanding of students' decision-making processes. The focus on Chinese students also limits the generalizability of the findings to other contexts.