Has excess epidemic prevention changed Chinese students' willingness to study abroad: three rounds of the same volume survey based on the new "push-pull" theory

After the outbreak of COVID-19, China adopted strict prevention and control measures, leading to what the authors term excess epidemic prevention. This study proposes a new push-pull theoretical framework and conducts three rounds of the same-volume survey during early (2020), middle (2021), and late (2022) pandemic stages, covering 12,248 students from over 270 universities in Mainland China. Tracking changes in willingness to study abroad across stages, the study shows COVID-19 profoundly altered four influencing dimensions: study abroad pull, study abroad push, domestic pull, and domestic push. Epidemic-related factors emerged as new push-pull components. Under strict prevention policies, Chinese students’ willingness to study abroad declined markedly and destination preferences shifted in line with national political ideology. However, under excessive prevention, willingness rebounded in the latest period as public acceptance of the epidemic increased. The study updates push-pull theory with pandemic-related factors and offers insights into changing patterns of global talent mobility.