Global hake production and trade: Insights for food security and supply chain resilience

Global food trade plays a crucial role in food and nutrition security, but inequalities in governance and market access often hinder equitable distribution, particularly affecting vulnerable populations. Hake, a commercially and nutritionally valuable fish species, is a significant component of the global white fish market. Between 2016 and 2022, hake accounted for a considerable portion of the global frozen fish trade. This study explores the global hake trade network (HGTN), focusing on its structure, resilience, and implications for sustainable fisheries management and global food security. Food security, as defined by the FAO, requires consistent access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food. International trade in aquatic products is vital for enhancing food security, expanding consumer choice, and driving economic growth. However, the seafood trade faces various risks, including fishery collapses, natural disasters, and policy shifts. The increasing global population further exacerbates these challenges. Global trade agreements have expanded seafood trade but also present challenges for resource management and traceability. Mechanisms like traceability and catch documentation, certification schemes, and ecolabels are crucial for ensuring sustainable resource use and consumer protection. Declining fish stocks highlight the pressure on marine resources, emphasizing the need for resilient seafood trade networks capable of withstanding ecological and economic shocks. The study aims to analyze the HGTN's structure and characteristics, assess its resilience to shocks, and explore how trade networks can promote equitable resource distribution and enhance global food security.

Existing research highlights the multifaceted impacts of global trade networks, showcasing both benefits and vulnerabilities, and the complex interdependencies they create among producers, intermediaries, and consumers. Studies on lobster and octopus trade demonstrate how regional market shifts or policy changes can have wide-ranging effects on global markets. Network analysis is a useful tool for understanding these complex trade dynamics, including distant feedback loops and trade dependencies. Hake, a major seafood commodity, is subject to varied fishing pressures and regulatory environments. Analyzing its trade patterns provides insights into overexploitation risks and opportunities for sustainable practices. Network analysis helps identify key countries and links crucial for hake flow, pinpointing where interventions could be most effective.

The study employed a two-pronged approach. First, it conducted a comprehensive analysis of hake fishery production from 1950 to 2020, tracing catch development across species, continents, and subcontinents using FAO's FishStatJ database. This data was integrated with export and import data from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database to estimate global per capita hake availability. Second, the study focused on the HGTN between 2016 and 2020, using data from the UN database. Network analysis and graph visualization techniques were used to elucidate patterns and dynamics, identify key players, and analyze food supply (apparent food supply = production + imports – exports / human population). Centrality measures (degree, strength, betweenness, and Page's Rank) were applied to determine node and edge significance, providing insights into network resilience and efficiency. Hierarchical clustering (Ward's method) was used to group traders based on import and export links. A Sankey diagram visualized trade flows. Analyses were performed using R (igraph, flashClust, ggplot2, ggmap, ggraph, ggtree) and Python (Matplotlib, Seaborn). An interactive web application was developed to enhance data accessibility and visualization.

Six hake species accounted for 94% of total catches from 1950 to 2020, with peak catches in the 1970s. European and South American fleets initially dominated catches, followed by a shift towards South American dominance. Argentina and the USA were leading producers in 2016-2020. European catches have declined since the 1990s, with Spain recording the highest catches in Europe. Africa, particularly South Africa and Namibia, saw increased catches. Europe was the dominant importer (2016-2020), while North America and Africa were major exporters. A positive correlation existed between GDP, betweenness centrality, and hake supply. Countries with high GDP generally had higher hake supply and network intermediation. The USA and China had high GDPs but moderate betweenness. Spain showed high betweenness, highlighting its central role. Total hake trade volume and value increased, though the growth rate slowed since 2016. Cluster analysis identified 14 distinct clusters, with Spain, the USA, Argentina, and China forming the largest cluster. Analysis of top trade flows revealed Argentina, Spain, and the USA as leading exporters, with Namibia also playing a key role. Spain acted as a crucial hub connecting South American and African supplies with European markets. Strength centrality analysis identified Spain, Namibia, South Africa, the USA, Argentina, and Italy as key players. Spain led in import volume, while Namibia, Spain, and South Africa were top exporters. Betweenness centrality analysis (weighted by trade mass and value) revealed Spain, the USA, South Africa, and Portugal as strategic intermediaries, with Canada showing enhanced importance in value-weighted analysis. Page's Rank analysis indicated European dominance, with Spain, Italy, and Germany holding high centrality. Portugal emerged as a central player when value was considered. The consistent ranking of EU countries underscored the EU's substantial influence in the hake trade market.

The study's findings highlight the urgent need to meet the nutritional demands of a growing global population, emphasizing the potential of marine foods like hake. However, the declining trend in global hake catches since the 1970s presents a challenge. The decline in hake catches is juxtaposed with the increasing demand for protein-rich foods. Overexploitation and catch fluctuations across various regions are noted, requiring a re-evaluation of fishing practices and sustainable approaches. The ecological consequences of overfishing, including trophic cascades, must also be addressed. The concept of "sustainable commoditization" is crucial, advocating for seafood production that balances food security with environmental conservation. Global trade dynamics have significantly evolved, with Europe, particularly Spain, becoming a dominant importer. Developed countries' dependence on imports from developing nations raises concerns about resilience to shocks and equitable benefit distribution. The correlation between a country's economic status and its role in the hake trade network highlights economic disparities. Developed countries benefit significantly, while developing nations face challenges in balancing economic growth with resource sustainability. The socio-economic impacts of the seafood trade on small-scale fisheries further underscore existing inequalities. Trade resilience is vital for food security; diversified trade networks, as seen in Spain, provide greater resilience against market disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the fragility of international seafood markets and the need for resilient supply chains and innovative adaptations. Regional trade clusters and agreements enhance food security, promoting fairer resource distribution and self-reliance. The vulnerability of global trade to ecological and political shocks emphasizes the need for adaptive trading systems.

This study reveals the complex interplay between global hake trade, food security, and sustainability. While the hake trade offers opportunities to address food shortages, challenges related to overexploitation, sustainability, and economic disparities persist. Sustainable management practices, equitable trade policies, and resilient trade networks are crucial for the long-term viability of hake fisheries and global food security. Collaboration among stakeholders is vital for addressing these challenges.

The study's reliance on existing datasets might limit the granularity of certain analyses, particularly concerning consumption patterns and actual consumption versus estimated supply. The estimation of food supply did not account for stock changes and non-food uses, potentially overestimating average consumption. The analysis of trade networks is based on reported trade data and does not account for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities which may influence the results.