Transportation

FORECASTING AMERICANS’ LONG-TERM ADOPTION OF CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES

P. Bansal and K. M. Kockelman

This study reveals how technology pricing and consumer willingness to pay can significantly impact the adoption rates of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies in the U.S. over the next three decades. Conducted by Prateek Bansal and Kara M. Kockelman, the analysis uses simulations to capture future trends in vehicle technology adoption.

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Abstract

This study forecasts Americans' long-term (2015-2045) adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies using a simulation-based framework. The simulation considers scenarios with varying annual technology price drops (5% and 10%), annual increases in willingness to pay (WTP) (0%, 5%, and 10%), and changes in government regulations. Results, calibrated with a survey of 2,167 Americans, show significant variation in adoption rates based on these factors. High WTP increases or price reductions lead to high adoption rates for most technologies by 2045, while without these, adoption remains low.

Publisher

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

Published On

Jan 01, 2017

Authors

Prateek Bansal, Kara M. Kockelman

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