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Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

Transportation

Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

P. Bansal and K. M. Kockelman

This study, conducted by Prateek Bansal and Kara M. Kockelman, explores the future adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies among Americans. The research highlights that without substantial increases in public willingness to pay or supportive policies, it's unlikely that these technologies will achieve widespread use by 2045.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study forecasts Americans’ long-term (2015–2045) adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies using a simulation-based fleet evolution framework. The simulation considers technology price drops, changes in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP), and government regulations. Results indicate that without significant increases in WTP, supportive policies, or unusually rapid cost reductions, widespread CAV adoption by 2045 is unlikely.
Publisher
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Published On
Jan 01, 2017
Authors
Prateek Bansal, Kara M. Kockelman
Tags
connected vehicles
autonomous vehicles
adoption forecast
willingness to pay
government regulations
future technology
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