FORECASTING AMERICANS’ LONG-TERM ADOPTION OF CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES

Automobile enterprises, researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation-based framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015 to 2045) adoption levels of CAV technologies under eight different scenarios based on: 5% and 10% annual drops in technology prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and changes in government regulations. This simulation was calibrated with the data obtained from a survey of 2,167 Americans, in order to obtain their preferences for CAV technologies and their household’s annual vehicle transaction decisions. Results indicate that the average WTP (of respondents with a non-zero WTP) to add connectivity and Level 3 and Level 4 automations are $110, $5,551, and $14,589, respectively. Long-term fleet evolution suggests that the privately held light-duty vehicle fleet will have 24.8% Level 4 AV penetration by 2045 under an annual 5% price drop and constant WTP values. This share jumps to 87.2% under a 10% annual price drop and a 10% annual rise in WTP values. Additionally, in all scenarios with at least a 10% annual increase in WTP or at least a 10% annual price reduction, all Level 1 technologies exceed 90% adoption rates by 2045. Overall, simulations suggest that, without a rise in people’s WTP, or policies that promote technologies, or rapid reductions in technology costs, it is unlikely that the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet’s technology mix will be anywhere near homogeneous by the year 2045.

Prateek Bansal, Kara M. Kockelman