Evaluating the effectiveness of the Kidogo model in empowering women and strengthening their capacities to engage in paid labor opportunities through the provision of quality childcare: a study protocol for an exploratory study in Nakuru County, Kenya

The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Kidogo Hub & Spoke childcare model in empowering women economically by improving access to quality, affordable childcare in low-income urban settings. Grounded in evidence that women shoulder disproportionate unpaid care burdens that limit paid labor participation, the study investigates whether quality childcare increases women’s labor force participation, productivity, and economic empowerment. The research is informed by Kabeer’s (1999) empowerment framework (resources, agency, achievements) and a theory of change positing that improved childcare quality and availability free women’s time, reduce absenteeism, and enhance decision-making and economic knowledge, leading to improved labor participation in the intermediate term and economic empowerment in the long term. The study also seeks to identify which components of the Kidogo model work, how they can be scaled, and the cost and cost-effectiveness of the model to inform policy.

The paper situates the study within global and regional gender inequalities, emphasizing unpaid care burdens and labor market disparities. Women globally earn about 85% of men’s wages for similar work and education, are overrepresented in low-wage and informal jobs, and undertake substantially more unpaid care work (ILO; UNFPA). In low-income urban contexts, limited social support and unsuitable workplaces exacerbate conflicts between childcare and paid work, particularly for informal workers who lack breastfeeding-friendly environments. Evidence from Nairobi’s informal settlements (e.g., Mukuru kwa Njenga, Korogocho) links access to childcare with increased women’s work engagement, earnings, mobility, and hours worked. Studies show childcare centers can increase breastfeeding rates up to six-fold in the first six months in developing countries, reduce absenteeism, and improve mothers’ peace of mind, contributing to improved labor participation, children’s school readiness, and productivity. These findings underscore the potential of affordable, quality childcare to enhance women’s economic outcomes and broader economic growth, supporting the rationale for evaluating Kidogo’s model.

Design: Quasi-experimental study with two arms (intervention and comparison) using a mixed-methods approach (quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews, records review). Study sites within Nakuru Town West sub-County (Nakuru County) will be randomly assigned to intervention and comparison arms with a buffer zone to minimize contamination. Participants within centers are purposively selected; arms matched on population size and background characteristics. Participants: Primary beneficiaries are mothers with children under three years using childcare services in Hub & Spoke centers (intervention) and non-Kidogo centers (comparison). All mamapreneurs (intervention) and childcare center caregivers (comparison) in selected centers are included as secondary beneficiaries. Intervention: Kidogo will establish 1–2 model hubs (45–60 children each; one community hub and one employer-supported) and support 20–40 spokes (10–15 children each) via social franchising. Mamapreneurs receive a 9-month program of monthly ECD/business workshops, bi-weekly 2-hour on-site coaching by a Franchising Officer, mentorship, materials (Starter Kit), and smartphones for virtual training and real-time follow-up; Kidogo covers internet costs. Primary caregivers in the intervention receive monthly parenting messages. Community engagement occurs monthly. Training for caregivers (ECD practices) and for mamapreneurs (quality enhancement and business support) lasts 12 months. Outcomes: Primary women’s labor outcomes include labor force participation, hours worked per week, individual and household income, absenteeism, time allocated to household tasks, autonomy/household decision-making, economic knowledge, and career advancement prospects. For providers, childcare quality and center profitability/income are assessed. Short-term outcomes include access to quality childcare, reduced absenteeism, more time for productive work, improved decision-making, and self-confidence/economic knowledge; intermediate outcome is improved labor participation; impact is women’s economic empowerment. Sample size: Anticipating a 50% reduction in absence days from 17% (4/24) to 8.3% (2/24), total n=338 (rounded to 340) for 80% power, 5% alpha, 10% attrition, design effect 1.5; approximately 170 primary caregivers per arm. A standard two-arm difference in proportions sample size formula is referenced. Data collection and management: Baseline at enrollment, midline at 6 months, endline at 12 months. Tools co-developed with stakeholders via a workshop. Quantitative structured interviews capture sociodemographics and outcomes; qualitative interviews (≈50) with primary caregivers, fathers, center caregivers, community leaders, and policymakers explore mechanisms, acceptability, scalability; a subset re-interviewed near endline. Interviews audio-recorded with consent. Data collected via phone and in-person as feasible, using tablets and SurveyCTO; supervised with spot-checks/sit-ins (~10%). Qualitative data are transcribed verbatim; double-coding on ~10% for consistency. Costing and cost-effectiveness: Micro-costing from the implementer’s perspective, including start-up (training, awareness, infrastructure, materials) and implementation (supervision, monitoring/mentoring, materials, personnel, airtime, transport). Primary time-use survey and secondary financial records inform costs. Costs categorized (personnel, materials, infrastructure, capital, supervision, monitoring/mentoring, airtime, transportation, joint costs). Capital/investment costs annualized; donated goods/volunteer time valued economically. Data entered into a customized Excel tool; summarized by target group (mamapreneurs, caregivers). Combined with effects to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness; sensitivity analyses planned. Data analysis: Qualitative thematic analysis through familiarization, theme definition, coding, charting, and interpretation; coding using NVivo with a collaboratively developed codebook. Quantitative analysis in Stata 16 using difference-in-differences (DID) to estimate changes in outcomes over time between arms, with propensity score matching (PSM) based on observable characteristics. Parallel trends assumption tested prior to DID. Primary outcomes include the proportion of women empowered with respect to labor market participation. Records review complements analysis. Ethics: Approved by Amref Health Africa ESRC (Ref: P970/2021; 28 June 2021); study permit from NACOSTI; permissions from Nakuru County and sub-County governments. Informed consent procedures described for phone and face-to-face contexts with confidentiality safeguards.

No empirical findings are reported; this is a study protocol for an ongoing quasi-experimental evaluation. The protocol anticipates that improved childcare quality and access via the Kidogo Hub & Spoke model will reduce absenteeism, free women’s time for productive work, improve household decision-making and economic knowledge, increase labor participation, enhance caregivers’ productivity and incomes, and improve childcare center provider incomes, culminating in greater women’s economic empowerment.

The protocol outlines how the intervention is expected to improve women’s labor outcomes by addressing constraints posed by unpaid care burdens through provision of quality, affordable childcare. By enhancing resources (access to employment and income opportunities), agency (economic knowledge and self-confidence), and achievements (productivity), the model aligns with Kabeer’s empowerment framework and seeks to produce sustained change. The study aims to generate evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a scalable childcare model in a poor urban Kenyan context, with potential applicability across Kenya and the East African region. Policy implications emphasize gender-responsive reforms and recognition of unpaid care work, while practical, community-level solutions like Kidogo’s micro-franchising approach can directly improve women’s economic engagement in informal settings.

This protocol presents a mixed-methods, quasi-experimental evaluation of the Kidogo Hub & Spoke childcare model to assess impacts on women’s labor participation, productivity, and economic empowerment, and to determine what components work, scalability, and cost-effectiveness. The study is expected to produce actionable evidence on affordable, quality childcare as a pathway to women’s economic empowerment in low-income urban contexts. Future research directions include assessing long-term impacts beyond one year, examining child development and household well-being spillovers, testing the model in diverse settings and with employer-supported hubs, and evaluating policy integration strategies for scaling childcare solutions.