This study quantifies how changes in temperature and precipitation would influence the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. The analysis explores the impact of a range of climate change projections on fire events compared to a baseline of fire danger, using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that areas in southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring in any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 °C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increased probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, would put extra strain on Europe's ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.

Siham El Garroussi, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Christopher Barnard, Fredrik Wetterhall