Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

This study quantifies how changes in temperature and precipitation would influence the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. Using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis baseline and Fire Weather Index (FWI), the authors construct two-dimensional impact response surfaces (IRS) to assess how incremental temperature and precipitation changes translate to probabilities of extreme fire weather. Under a moderate CMIP6 scenario, parts of southern Europe could see a tenfold increase in the annual probability of catastrophic fires. Crossing a +2 °C global warming threshold makes central and northern Europe more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increased probability of extremes, combined with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, threatens to strain Europe’s fire management capacity in the coming decades.

Siham El Garroussi, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Christopher Barnard, Fredrik Wetterhall