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Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

Earth Sciences

Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

J. Nitzbon, S. Westermann, et al.

Recent research conducted by Jan Nitzbon and colleagues reveals alarming projections for permafrost in northeast Siberia, indicating significant degradation due to warming, especially under severe climate scenarios. This study underscores the crucial need for refined Earth system models to understand global permafrost carbon dynamics and the urgent importance of climate change mitigation.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Previous projections suggested stability of ice- and organic-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia beyond 2100, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. However, these projections lacked thermokarst processes. This study incorporates thermokarst into a numerical model and projects substantial permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5), while moderate warming (RCP4.5) shows thawing moderated by stabilizing feedbacks. Thaw-affected carbon by 2100 could be up to three-fold (RCP4.5) or twelve-fold (RCP8.5) higher than projections ignoring thermokarst. The study highlights the need for improved Earth system models to accurately assess global permafrost carbon-climate feedback and emphasizes climate change mitigation.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
May 04, 2020
Authors
Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Jens Strauss, Sebastian Laboor, Julia Boike
Tags
permafrost
thermokarst
climate change
carbon emissions
global warming
numerical modeling

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