Earth Sciences

The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

C. Dong, A. P. Williams, et al.

This study by Chunyu Dong and team reveals alarming projections for Southern California's fire regime, forecasting a significant increase in large fire days from 36 per year to as many as 71 by 2099 due to rising greenhouse gas emissions. The findings indicate not only more fire days but also a more intense fire season with an earlier start and a later finish.

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Abstract

This study projects that large fire days in Southern California will significantly increase by 2099 due to projected greenhouse gas emissions, despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime. Using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations, the researchers estimate that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year (1970-1999) to 58 days/year (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year (RCP8.5) by 2070-2099. The large fire season will also be more intense, with an earlier onset and delayed end.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Feb 17, 2022

Authors

Chunyu Dong, A. Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Kairong Lin, Gregory S. Okin, Thomas W. Gillespie, Di Long, Yen-Heng Lin, Alex Hall, Glen M. MacDonald

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