Assessing the extent and persistence of major crisis events in the crude oil market and economy: evidence from the past 30 years

This study investigates the extent and persistence of major crisis events in the crude oil market and economy and searches for general rules of event impact. Although the short-term effects of such crises may quickly become evident, their long-term implications can be challenging to uncover. To this end, we analyzed 50 major crisis events across four categories using a Proxy structural vector autoregressive (Proxy-SVAR) model. The results show that these events substantially impacted crude oil production, world crude oil prices, and inflation in China and the United States. Generally speaking, major crisis events have a more severe impact on the crude oil market, but their impact on the economy lasts longer. Notably, geopolitical conflicts have led to a sharp decline in S&P500, resulting in a simultaneous reduction in the industrial production indices of the world, China, and the US. Among the different types of crises, the financial crisis had the most prolonged impact, persisting for approximately four years. The public health emergency represented by COVID-19 resulted in a decline in actual oil prices, with its impact on the oil market continuing for over three years. Considering our findings, we suggest four policy measures to enhance economic resilience.

Qi Zhang, Yi Hu, Jianbin Jiao, Shouyang Wang