Virtual tree, real impact: how simulated worlds associate with the perception of limited resources

The perception of natural resource scarcity is a critical concern across various fields, including economics, public policy, and environmental studies. Unsustainable exploitation driven by population growth and environmental changes like deforestation and climate change highlight the Earth's limited capacity to replenish resources. This necessitates promoting sustainable practices, a challenge complicated by varying perceptions of resource finiteness. Video games, evolving from simple tools to complex virtual worlds, offer a unique platform to study human behavior and perceptions. Resource management is a common game mechanic, present explicitly in simulation and strategy games, and implicitly in others. This has led to the exploration of video games as educational tools for teaching sustainability and natural resource management. The study uses Animal Crossing: New Horizons (ACNH), a popular life simulation game with resource management elements, to explore the association between players' out-of-game perception of resource scarcity and their in-game pro-environmental behaviors. The game's popularity, reaching 31 million units sold within 9.5 months, provides a broad reach for investigating this relationship.

Existing research establishes a reciprocal relationship between environmental perception and behavior. Behavior is influenced by environmental perception, and conversely, perception is shaped by experience and interaction with the environment. Diminished connection with nature contributes to a low perception of environmental crises. Video games have been explored as a means to bridge this gap, offering immersive virtual environments that foster nature connectedness and pro-environmental attitudes. While studies on violent video games and aggression effects have yielded mixed results, with some suggesting an association and others finding none, research in digital game-based learning points to the potential of video games to facilitate attitudinal and behavioral changes towards environmental issues. Studies have shown that immersive virtual nature experiences can positively affect pro-environmental behaviors, particularly when coupled with game mechanics that reinforce desirable actions. The economic principles of production, trade, and consumption inherent in ACNH, along with its resource limitations (e.g., trees taking time to regrow), provide a suitable context to examine the correlation between in-game actions and perception of resource scarcity.

This study analyzed data from 640 ACNH players from over 30 countries, gathered through a convenient sampling method using online surveys distributed across various online communities. The survey collected data on demographic traits, opinions on nature and human-nature relationships, and in-game behaviors. A three-step process was followed for data collection, including a pilot test, obtaining permission from community administrators, and offering incentives to participants. The data consists of a geographically diverse sample, with a majority from Canada and the USA, and a significant portion from Asia. A Bayesian multilevel model was employed to analyze the data. The Bayesian approach was chosen for its ability to handle small sample sizes and incorporate uncertainty in estimations, while the multilevel model was used to account for the variation among ethnicities in the sample and for better analysis of construct variables. The revised New Ecological Paradigm Scale (NEPS) was used to measure environmental perception, specifically focusing on the "reality of limits to growth" dimension. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to determine the most appropriate items for measuring this dimension, leading to the selection of two items (C1 and C11) from the NEPS. In-game behaviors were measured using a scale ranging from "never" to "often," and grouped into "developing resources" (planting trees and flowers) and "exploiting resources" (cutting down trees, selling resources). Five models were constructed and compared using the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) to determine the best predictive model.

The analysis revealed that the model with "Exploit Tree" as a predictor had the lowest WAIC, suggesting the highest predictive power. Across all models, positive correlations were found between players' in-game actions (both developing and exploiting resources) and their perception of the Earth's limited resources. However, in the Exploit Tree model, Black or African American participants showed a negative correlation between exploiting trees and the perception of limited resources. The effective sample size (n_eff) and Rhat values for all models indicated good convergence of posterior coefficients. For developing resources, Asian and Caucasian participants showed the strongest positive correlations between in-game actions and perception of limited resources. The posterior distributions of all models, with the exception of the negative correlation noted in the Exploit Tree model for Black or African American participants, generally fell within the positive range.

The findings suggest a potential link between in-game behaviors in ACNH and real-world perception of resource scarcity. The positive correlation between in-game actions and perception of limited resources suggests the possibility of using video games as a tool to raise environmental awareness. The consistency of correlations, irrespective of whether players were planting or exploiting resources, may reflect the game mechanics which drive players toward similar actions regardless of their perception. The exception of Black or African American participants in the Exploit Tree model highlights the need for further investigation into the nuances of cultural and social factors influencing the perception-behavior relationship in virtual environments. The findings align with previous studies showing a link between virtual nature experiences and pro-environmental attitudes.

This study demonstrates a potential for leveraging video games like ACNH to foster pro-environmental awareness. However, game design should be carefully considered to incorporate more meaningful environmental constraints and incentives. Collaboration between game developers, environmental NGOs, and other stakeholders is crucial to effectively utilize this technology for environmental education. Future research should expand the sample size, incorporate a broader range of games, and directly investigate the interactive nature of the perception-behavior relationship.

The study's limitations include a relatively small sample size, reliance on self-reported data (potentially introducing bias), and the use of a convenience sampling method that may limit generalizability. The focus on a single game also restricts the breadth of applicability of the findings. Furthermore, the study explored correlation but not causality, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn regarding the direct influence of in-game behavior on environmental perception.