Traditional seismic hazard analyses underestimate hazard levels when compared to observations from the 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquakes

A sequence of two major earthquakes, Mw7.8 Pazarcik, and Mw7.5 Elbistan, struck Southeastern Turkey in February 2023. This study performs seismic hazard assessment for the region to estimate exceedance probabilities of observed magnitudes and ground motions. Observed ground motions generally agree with empirical models for the Pazarcik event; however, some records with high amplitudes exceed the highest observed amplitudes in an extensive database of shallow crustal earthquakes. The Elbistan earthquake shows a notable underestimation at long periods. The study discusses potential scientific advances for better characterization of such major earthquakes.

Abdullah Altindal, Aysegul Askan