Climate models predict increased drought and aridity in many regions due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This study uses convection-permitting climate simulations for the Canary Islands, driven by three global climate models (CMIP5), to project significant increases in drought duration and severity by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. The impact is more pronounced at higher altitudes due to elevation-dependent temperature rise and decreased precipitation. In the business-as-usual scenario, up to 96% of higher elevations could be affected by drought.

Judit Carrillo, Sara Hernández-Barrera, Francisco J. Expósito, Juan P. Díaz, Albano González, Juan C. Pérez