Earth Sciences

The uneven impact of climate change on drought with elevation in the Canary Islands

J. Carrillo, S. Hernández-barrera, et al.

In light of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, a team of researchers including Judit Carrillo and Sara Hernández-Barrera has projected alarming increases in drought duration and severity for the Canary Islands by the late 21st century. Their study reveals a critical impact at higher altitudes, presenting a dire forecast for the region's future.

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Abstract

Climate models predict increased drought and aridity in many regions due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This study uses convection-permitting climate simulations for the Canary Islands, driven by three global climate models (CMIP5), to project significant increases in drought duration and severity by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. The impact is more pronounced at higher altitudes due to elevation-dependent temperature rise and decreased precipitation. In the business-as-usual scenario, up to 96% of higher elevations could be affected by drought.

Publisher

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Published On

Apr 12, 2023

Authors

Judit Carrillo, Sara Hernández-Barrera, Francisco J. Expósito, Juan P. Díaz, Albano González, Juan C. Pérez

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