This model-based scenario study quantifies the medium-term effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on agricultural production, trade, market prices, food security, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The study finds that while global food availability remains sufficient, higher food and energy prices disproportionately impact low-income populations. Increased agricultural production elsewhere could threaten biodiversity, but overall greenhouse gas emissions might decrease due to reduced fossil fuel use.

Hans van Meijl, Heleen Bartelings, Siemen van Berkum, Hao David Cui, Zuzana Smeets Kristková, Willem Jan van Zeist