The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine risks worsening global food insecurity because both countries are major exporters of grains and oilseeds. Using a model-based scenario analysis, the study quantifies medium-term effects on agricultural production, trade, prices, food security, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenarios represent macroeconomic and production impacts in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and war-related energy price increases. Globally, food quantities remain sufficient, but higher food and energy prices reduce affordability, especially for low-income populations that spend a large share of income on staples. Agricultural production and land expansion outside Ukraine and Russia may threaten biodiversity and increase land-use emissions. However, total GHG emissions could decline because reduced fossil energy use—driven by higher energy and fertilizer prices—outweighs additional land-use emissions.

Hans van Meijl, Heleen Bartelings, Siemen van Berkum, Hao David Cui, Zuzana Smeets Kristková, Willem Jan van Zeist