The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer

Employment stability underpins high-quality economic development. Using CMDS microdata (2014–2018), IFR robot data, and China’s Second National Economic Census, this study examines how robot applications affect rural labor migration in China, with emphasis on crowding-out mechanisms. Theoretically, robots affect labor demand via expansion and substitution effects. Empirically, a 1% rise in urban robot density increases the probability of rural labor re-migration by 0.249%. Robot applications reduce the urban migration rate and raise the likelihood of rural labor returning to agriculture. Mechanism analyses show pronounced passive crowding-out, especially among lower-skilled workers, individuals aged over 44, those in low-skilled occupations, workers with strong mobility, and residents in economically developed areas. Robot adoption also increases average wages and working hours and improves factor allocation efficiency. Findings inform policies to stabilize employment and optimize rural labor migration amid AI development.

Kaizhi Yu, Yao Shi, Jiahan Feng